Forward Look

Market bears have staked their claim on natural gas markets as forward prices moved lower across all of North America for the Aug. 23-29 period as record production and forecast waning heat in the coming weeks sent September forward prices down by an average 11 cents, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

September natural gas prices rose by an average 3 cents from Aug. 16-22 as long-range weather outlooks showed a much hotter end for August and into early September. Storage concerns remained a bullish catalyst for the market as well, even as the week’s storage report delivered an on-target injection.

Natural gas prices for September fell an average 3 cents from Aug. 9-15 as weather forecasts began hinting of cooler weather in the weeks ahead. Northeast points, however, posted small gains as intense heat and humidity returned during the week, lifting demand and cash prices in the region, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

September natural gas prices jumped an average 13 cents from Aug. 2-9, fueled by growing concerns about persistently low storage inventories that led to a six-day rally in Nymex futures, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

If you’re looking to the natural gas futures strip for any meaningful price action — which should be a given considering the sweltering summer weather, low storage inventories and relatively stagnant production — you’ll need to look elsewhere.

Although much of the United States is expected to get a brief reprieve from hot summer temperatures during the next few days, California will have no such luck as weather forecasts show the state trending even warmer. Already, the intense heat wave had boosted spot natural gas prices to new highs and now, SoCal Citygate August forward prices have increased by a whopping $2.44 from July 19-25, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

Dry natural gas production in the Lower 48 has continued to soar to new heights, closing in on 81 Bcf/d in recent days, but persistent storage deficits and lingering heat in some regions have market bulls going the distance in an ongoing battle for natural gas prices. August forward prices rose a penny on average between July 5 and 11, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

August natural gas forward prices fell an average 5 cents from June 27 through July 3 as production continued to push its way to the forefront of market sentiment, while cooler weather that showed up in forecasts also weighed on the market, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

In a week that saw July natural gas prices surge past $3 only to plunge 12 cents during the next two days, the Nymex prompt-month contract ultimately wound up shedding a single penny between June 14 and 19 to end at $2.964, according toNGI’s Forward Look.