With little fresh fundamental news for which to go on, tradersin the natural gas pit at Nymex were cautious Thursday and as aresult neither bull nor bear was able to influence prices much ineither direction. Held to an extremely tight, 11-cent range, Marchprices drifted sideways yesterday, closing just four ticks lower at$5.142.

While fundamentalists are eagerly watching each installment ofrevised intermediate-term weather forecasts to see when and if thecountry will get another blast of Arctic air, technical traders aremindful of two long-term trend lines on a collision course for eachother. Specifically, they are charting upward sloping “Trend 2000″drawn by connecting lows notched on the daily continuation chartlast year against “Trend 2001,” drawn by connecting highs tradesmade this year. Here’s the kicker: Because Trend 2001 decreases atthe rate of approximately 9 cents a day and Trend 2000 increases atthe rate of about a penny a day, these two trend lines will meetnext Friday at about $5.14, which is coincidentally yesterday’sclosing price. Currently, Trend 2000 is located at $5.08 whileTrend 2001 is well above the market at $5.72.

For brokers Tom Saal and Ed Kennedy of Miami-based PioneerFutures the trading strategy is simple: Buyers should look to belong here, risking that position down to a settlement below Trend2000. Producers, on the other hand, should buy puts if the marketsettles below that level of support. However, Saal and Kennedybelieve that when all is said and done, the longer-term trendshould prevail.

Meanwhile, IFR Pegasus has shifted its focus to the Aprilcontract, but is equally bullish. To that end, the group looks fora rally above resistance at $5.40-41 to steady the market’s nerves.If achieved, they are looking to work in an April buy stop at $5.44to capture the move to prior highs at $5.629, $5.97 and $6.25.

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