Winter

Looking back on the winter that wasn’t in his Monthly Energy Outlook issued March 23, Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Associates is projecting wholesale natural gas prices near $6-$7 for the second quarter, “and depending on summer heat and hurricanes, possibly longer.”

As the mild winter continues to wind down, the natural gas industry — in looking for the next gas price indicators — will soon change focus to the summer cooling season and the Atlantic hurricane season.

As the mild winter continues to wind down, the natural gas industry — in looking for the next gas price indicators — will soon change focus to the summer cooling season and the Atlantic hurricane season.

As the winter heating season winds to a close, the natural gas industry is now looking towards the summer cooling season and the Atlantic hurricane season for indicators on the direction of natural gas prices. Special attention is being paid to the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, which forecasters expect to be overly active. Focus on the hurricane season is even greater as Gulf of Mexico oil and gas producers continue to pick up the pieces six months after Hurricane Katrina’s devastation.

Given continued “freakishly” mild winter weather, gas prices are likely to dip to $7 by March, according to energy consultant Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith & Associates. Smith is forecasting a season ending gas storage level of 1,570 Bcf, compared to 10-year norms of about 890 Bcf, and a March 31 Henry Hub gas price of about $6.75-7.50.

Winter temperatures and high gas prices can put a credit squeeze on local distribution companies (LDC) that don’t win in the gas market or win the favor of their regulators. Of 14 LDCs followed by Standard & Poor’s (S&P), all have a purchased-gas adjustment clause and all have some form of hedging policy, both positives for credit. But S&P also looks at business profile, supply position, and storage capacity when evaluating LDC credit ratings.

As part of a series of expanded programs by utilities in the state to help buffer customers from this winter’s expected high natural gas bills, Pacific Gas and Electric Co. Wednesday announced it has doubled the funds available for its low-income assistance program, REACH (Relief for Assistance through Community Help), to $3 million through launching a pledge drive among its customers and employees. As a result maximum aid to qualifying low-income customers will be increased to $300/household, compared to its previous $200 limit.

Oil and natural gas prices have been down in recent weeks on mild winter weather, which could spell an earlier-than-normal end to the seasonal strength that historically carries energy stocks through April. However, bullish fundamentals longer term will ultimately drive company shares higher in 2006, Raymond James analysts said in a report Monday.

With winter cold settling in and natural gas futures prices rising, the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc. (Nymex) said Friday that it is increasing the margins for its natural gas futures, Henry Hub swap futures, Henry Hub penultimate swap futures, Nymex miNYTM natural gas futures and Henry Hub swing swap futures. The changes were to go into effect at the close of business Monday.