Weak

Pressured by revised weather forecasts and weaker cash market prices, the natural gas futures market free-fell lower Monday to notch its lowest point in more than a month. The November contract was the hardest hit by the selling, dropping 27.4 cents to close at $4.512.

Another major screen dive combined with weak weather fundamentals to keep cash prices falling throughout the East Monday. The West, however, presented a mixed picture: some Rockies/Pacific Northwest points saw large losses, but the Southern California border and Southwest basins ranged from flat to up about a dime.

Under significant downward pressure from the weak crude oil market and continued spring weather, April futures opened 24.7 cents lower Tuesday and more than wiped out the two previous daily gains with a solid 16.8-cent drop to close the day at $5.339.

A bit of strength in the Rockies and New England citygates was more than offset by flat to mostly moderate year-end declines in other markets Monday. Although some of the softer points saw double-digit dips, a majority fell by less than a dime.

The December aftermarket was launched on a moderately weak note Wednesday, with quotes for the first and second falling several cents below both end-of-November swing levels and monthly indexes in nearly all cases. The Rockies and California held up most strongly, ranging from flat to a few pennies higher and lower.

Despite a screen plunge the day before and a generally weak fundamentals outlook, much of the cash market managed to level off Tuesday. Flat to moderately higher or lower pricing dominated at most points, although softness was a bit more pronounced in the West, where declines ranged as high as a dime or so in the Rockies/San Juan market.

While weak shoulder month gas demand minimized the market impact of Hurricane Lili and Tropical Storm Isidore, the two storms did cut substantial volumes of gas and oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, and on Friday continued to have an impact, with 670 MMcf/d of gas and 105,000 b/d of crude oil production remaining curtailed, according to the Minerals Management Service (MMS).

While weak shoulder month gas demand minimized the market impact of Hurricane Lili and Tropical Storm Isidore, the two storms did cut substantially volumes of gas and oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and on Friday continued to have an impact, with 670 MMcf/d of gas and 105,000 b/d of crude oil production remaining curtailed, according to the Minerals Management Service.

With tropical storm threats fading rapidly and demand fundamentals staying on the weak side, cash prices ignored a major expiration-day rebound by October futures and continued to fall everywhere except in the Rockies Thursday. The Rockies gains were small at a dime or less, while losses elsewhere tended to range from about 2 cents in Northern California to nearly half a dollar at some Northeast citygates.