Pressured by revised weather forecasts and weaker cash market prices, the natural gas futures market free-fell lower Monday to notch its lowest point in more than a month. The November contract was the hardest hit by the selling, dropping 27.4 cents to close at $4.512.

Late in the day on Friday, the NWS released an updated forecast calling for below-normal temperatures in the East. That forecast, coupled with traders’ recollection of the cold weather and spike highs of last winter suggested there might be room for a bit of a rally this week. But like the school boy who goes to sleep expecting a snow day but wakes to see bare grass in his backyard, natural gas bulls were disappointed Monday. In a stark turnaround that only a meteorologist could pull off, the National Weather Service said that the temperatures to kick off the month of November would be above-normal for much of the eastern United States.

Traders wasted little time pricing the negative weather news into the market. In fact, a majority of the losses were etched overnight Sunday in computer-only Access trading. When the bell rang for regular open outcry trading at the exchange Monday morning, traders were already staring at a nearly 20 cent discount to Friday’s close.

Cash prices did little to dissuade the selling at the exchange, as buyers of physical supply adjusted their loads in response to the fresh weather outlooks. NGI’s Henry Hub was down 22 cents to average $4.56 on the day.

As if the weather forecasts and lower cash prices were not enough already, the selling was also aided by expectations for another large storage injection figure to be released this Thursday. Early predictions Monday are centering on a 70 Bcf build for last week, which if realized would dwarf the five-year average and the year-ago analogs of 36 Bcf and 11 Bcf respectively. With temperatures now expected to be somewhat mild this week, a bearish hue is cast on next week’s figure, which will likely prove equally colossal versus the comparable five-year average injection tally of 20 Bcf.

After watching the market shed 50 cents since Thursday’s $5.02 high, traders are a little cautious to expect further softening from current levels. Having filled in the rollover gap down to $4.52 created when November became the prompt month late last month, the market might be prime for a correction Tuesday. Should one gain traction, it would likely target the upside gap at $4.75 as its first objective. More selling in November futures would be seen from $4.96-$5.00, which provided a ceiling for prices during last week’s push higher.

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