Volatility

High intra-day volatility continued at Nymex Tuesday whennatural gas futures came under selling pressure early in the dayonly to rebound late in the trading session to nearly unchangedlevels. Weak cash market prices were the talk of the market in themorning and it wasn’t until after pipeline nomination deadlines at12:30 PM eastern that futures were able to begin to recoup losses.The November contract settled for the day at $2.084, down 0.5 centsfor the day.

In sharp contrast to the frenzy and volatility during the monthof September, October futures trading has been a model ofcomplacency, where one day’s modest gains are another day’s lossesand narrow trading ranges are the rule rather than the exception.The November contract sputtered lower Monday in an “uneventful”trading session to settle at $2.393. Estimated volume was anextremely light 23,667.

For the last several weeks the futures market has been a modelof volatility where one day’s gains were the next day’s losses.However, the market couldn’t make up its mind yesterday and afterabruptly spiking higher in the morning, ran into overheadresistance and subsequent selling that forced the market lower inthe afternoon. The October contract settled nearly unchanged forthe day at $2.186.

Natural gas is second only to the newly established electricitymarket in terms of volatility, and Tuesday it did little to dispelthat notion as the market dipped momentarily, only to spikedramatically higher in the last 90 minutes of trading, leaving eventhe most weathered of bulls surprised by the advance. Octobersettled at $2.132, a 17.8-cent gain for the day and nearly ahalf-dollar above the $1.63 low established less than two weeksago. Estimated volume confirmed the active trading with over120,000 contracts changing hands.

After all the volatility surrounding the May Nymex contract oflate, the spot month spent what is typically one of any contract’smost volatile trading days (its expiration) by slipping only 0.4cents to settle Tuesday at $2.262. A trader said late strengthpushed June and the rest of the outmonths up a couple of cents forthe day, and noted May would have expired with a gain, had it notbeen for a fund dumping a large position within the last 30 minutesof trading.

Brokers and speculators (at least some, anyway) may havebreathed a collective sigh of relief on Wednesday, as volatilityreturned to the New York Mercantile Exchange. The April contractfinally broke out of the tight $2.105-205 trading range that hadbeen containing its movements since March 6 by virtue of its 8.4cent rise to $2.239. Sources agreed the activity was led byanticipatory buying ahead of the release of the latest AGA storagereport. “It was more buy based on rumor today, but the rumor wasstrong enough to drive April above major resistance at $2.205,” oneof the sources told NGI.

Volatility at the New York Mercantile Exchange has become so low the April contract was only able to trade within a narrow 3.5 centrange Tuesday, from $2.14-$2.175. The contract settled unchangedat $2.155.

The April Nymex contract finally broke out of its recent tradingrange by falling a relatively large 8.7 cents to $2.141 onThursday. “Today was massive long liquidation by funds, coupledwith weaker cash prices,” a broker told NGI. “The market droppedbelow the magic 40-day moving average (at $2.205), and fell belowtrendline support at $2.19. Both those things triggered a series ofstop loss orders, which helped propel April even lower. April lookspretty negative on the charts. There was a lot of technical damagetoday. The market will most likely want to continue to test thedown side,” he said.

Expiration week is supposed to be about extreme volatility atthe New York Mercantile Exchange, but the March natural gascontract exhibited anything but that on Monday. The spot monthinched 1.9 cents lower to $2.179 yesterday, amid a session bound bya tight 4-cent trading range