In sharp contrast to the frenzy and volatility during the monthof September, October futures trading has been a model ofcomplacency, where one day’s modest gains are another day’s lossesand narrow trading ranges are the rule rather than the exception.The November contract sputtered lower Monday in an “uneventful”trading session to settle at $2.393. Estimated volume was anextremely light 23,667.

Traders continue to point to the hefty 30- to 35-cent premiumthe November contract currently holds to cash market levels as asource of instability in the market. A marketer felt 10-15 centswould be a more appropriate spread between cash and futures. “Thismarket must be putting more stock in forecasts calling for acolder-than-normal La Nina winter. We could be setting ourselves upfor a big fall if this winter does not live up to expectations.”

But the Pegasus Econometric Group remains bullish in theshort-term. The group thinks there may be an opportunity foranother break out and run to the upside this week because storagerefills will again fall short of last year’s figure. They arelooking for a refill in the 40-60 Bcf range, which would fall wellshort of last year’s 87.

In daily technicals, immediate support is seen at $2.35, with amajor floor holding at $2.27. Resistance is at $2.53, a chartistsaid.

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