Virtually

July natural gas futures struggled to make it to the “plus” column Tuesday, but in spite of the firm finish short-term traders are anticipating a period of weakness before any further market advance. At the close July added 1.9 cents to $12.952 and August tacked on 1.8 cents to $13.055. July crude oil skidded 60 cents to $134.01/bbl.

According to the National Weather Service (NWS), the Feb. 5-9 workweek was supposed to feature above-normal temperatures in virtually all of the East and the eastern end of the Southwest (see Daily GPI, Jan. 30). But revealing the uncertainty of weather forecasts made several days in advance, the impending return of sub-freezing lows in the Midwest and New England and lows in the 30s in the lower Northeast and South resulted in double-digit price gains across the board Tuesday.

The cash market appeared to be slipping into a holding pattern Wednesday with close-to-flat prices prevailing at virtually all points. Only a few points, nearly all in the West, saw prices move by a dime or more. Flat quotes were common in a market that was approximately evenly divided among losses of up to about 15 cents and gains that also ran as high as about 15 cents (Questar was an exception with an increase of about 30 cents).

Prices fell at virtually all points Thursday as buyers in key northern market areas looked for warming trends going into the weekend to lighten their loads. Wednesday’s 12.4-cent rise by February futures had no effect on stemming the broad-based declines in cash quotes.

A few dollar-plus plunges were recorded as prices took massive drops at virtually every point Friday (the thinly quoted Questar was a market aberration in falling less than a nickel). The cash market was beset on all sides by negative influences: warming trends eliminating much of the heating load that had developed earlier in the week; indications that the lack of storage options coupled with high linepack issues could be coming to a head; further prior-day futures weakness; and the drop of industrial load that is typical of a weekend.

“The industry’s acreage land grab of the last five years is largely over. Virtually every conventional and unconventional gas resource play in the U.S. is totally locked up. The winners for the next 10 to 20 years have already been chosen and the losers will pay the price for years to come for being left behind.”

“The industry’s acreage land grab of the last five years is largely over. Virtually every conventional and unconventional gas resource play in the U.S. is totally locked up. The winners for the next 10 to 20 years have already been chosen and the losers will pay the price for years to come for being left behind.”

Prices rebounded at virtually all points Thursday due to gradually rebuilding cooling load after a midweek cooldown in several areas and strong prior-day screen support.

With its restructuring “virtually done,” Dynegy Inc. will begin to focus on organic growth and “opportunistic expansion” around its primary power generation businesses in the Midwest and New York, CEO Bruce Williamson said at the company’s annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday.