A few dollar-plus plunges were recorded as prices took massive drops at virtually every point Friday (the thinly quoted Questar was a market aberration in falling less than a nickel). The cash market was beset on all sides by negative influences: warming trends eliminating much of the heating load that had developed earlier in the week; indications that the lack of storage options coupled with high linepack issues could be coming to a head; further prior-day futures weakness; and the drop of industrial load that is typical of a weekend.

Declines ranged from about 55 cents to $1.15 and were fairly evenly distributed among the various market areas. Although all but Questar were still averaging above $3, Rockies points saw sub-$3 quotes starting to resurface.

There was still some cold weather-related demand in the physical market; it just wasn’t enough to overcome the overall major bearishness. Western New York residents woke up Friday to find nearly two feet of snow on the ground, and the Buffalo office of the National Weather Service said it was the city’s “snowiest” October day in the service’s 137-year history.

And although no snow has been reported yet in the South, frost and light freezes are due Saturday morning across the Tennessee Valley, southern Appalachians and the adjacent Piedmont area, according to The Weather Channel. However, some slight moderation will set in Sunday, it added.

Although cooling load had been wiped out by Friday almost everywhere except in the desert Southwest and some parts of the interior West Coast states, some will be returning to the South early this week. For example, Houston, which was cool enough Friday to justify wearing a light jacket, is forecast to see a high in the low 90s Tuesday.

Pipeline warnings about lack of storage capacity and/or excess linepack went a long way toward explaining why the market has turned so weak. Questar issued an OFO because its Clay Basin storage facility is closed for shut-in testing through next Wednesday, and CIG declared a Strained Operating Condition due to rising linepack and almost no storage injection capacity remaining (see Transportation Notes). PG&E extended a systemwide high-linepack OFO into at least its third day Saturday.

Other pipelines to the east didn’t issue OFO-like actions, but also weren’t pleased about being filled to the gills. Texas Eastern said its storage was “at unprecedented levels with a month remaining in the injection season,” causing concern about operational flexibility. Gulfstream posted a high linepack advisory because of shippers putting more into the system than they were taking out. And Southern said it was “too close to call” on whether it would need to declare a Type 6 OFO for long imbalances during the Saturday-Monday period.

“It’s no wonder that some of the pipes are complaining about receipts greatly exceeding deliveries,” one source said. With storage options rapidly getting closed off and light weather-based demand in recent weeks except for a few days last week, more and more traders who can’t find a viable home for their gas are trying to park it temporarily amid pipeline linepack until enough demand returns for them to sell it legitimately, he said.

Despite the big price drops, a Texas-based marketer perceived the Chicago citygate as seeming “relatively strong” because cold temperatures will remain in the Midwest for a while longer, while they tend to recede in the rest of the East. He thinks cash quotes should keep getting softer this week unless Nymex spikes for whatever reason. “The market is entering a kind of crazy time” when Nymex movements and weather shifts make it more difficult to project near-term price trends, he said.

The marketer said he saw some “pretty good” market-area demand Friday, which he attributed to the major price weakness drawing out some bargain hunting buyers who either needed the gas because the Midwest is staying fairly cold or still had some storage injection capacity open.

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