Trend

For the third trading session in a row, natural gas futuresopened higher yesterday, but unlike Monday when prices driftedlower, the movement was positive Tuesday as traders positionedthemselves ahead of today’s storage report and the continuation ofunseasonably cold temperatures.

The drop in demand over an extra-long holiday weekend and aforecasted trend of more moderate temperatures in some market areastowards the end of the weekend were enough to drag cash priceslower Wednesday. But due to a big last-minute screen jump and avery large storage withdrawal number, sources predicted asubstantial rebound this week.

Overall, the weekend market behaved predictably after thescreen’s big plunge Thursday, dropping between 15 and 35 cents atmost points Friday. But it was a much different story in Californiaand the Pacific Northwest, where prices rose sharply in hugelyvolatile trading. The Southern California border was “screaming,”said a trader reporting deals ranging from the $8.10s to more than$12.

Trendlines, like exit polls for statisticians, can tell marketwatchers a lot about the direction in which things might beheading. And while some statisticians in political arena might bewell-advised to take a closer look at their rules and procedures oflate, technicians in the natural gas arena have had a pretty easytime forecasting market moves. Since smashing into long-termtrendline support on Oct. 31, the market has resumed its uptrendand erupted a dollar higher, leaving even the mostdyed-in-the-wool bear traders second guessing their stripes.December futures finished strongly again Wednesday, up 25.7 centsat $5.338.

With little in the way of fresh fundamental news Thursday,traders were forced to rely on technical factors, which continuedto steer them to the long side of the market. Since plumbing a$4.38 low three days ago, the prompt month has rallied 38 cents toclose at $4.76 yesterday.

Once again several western points defied the overall downwardtrend of the cash market Tuesday. Most eastern quotes ranged 2-3cents to either side of down a nickel, but Rockies/San Juan andNorthern California increases went as high as a dime-plus.

In the hodgepodge of trading for split weekend periods Friday,little trend was evident other than the October aftermarket wasstarting out below indexes in nearly all cases. However, a fellownamed Keith could play a large part in reversing the generallysofter market as early as today.

Could this be a trend or just a sign of growing pains? ReliantEnergy, the Houston-based electric utility and energy servicescompany, took the torch from Williams, which made a similarannouncement last week, and announced it will separate itsregulated and unregulated businesses into two publicly tradedcompanies.

Could this be a trend or just a sign of growing pains? ReliantEnergy, the Houston-based electric utility and energy servicescompany, took a hint from Williams’ move earlier this week, andannounced it will separate its regulated and unregulated businessesinto two publicly traded companies.