Traders

Energy traders would do well to fasten their seatbelts for thecontinuing convergence of natural gas and power if the predictionof Coastal Corp. CEO David A. Arledge is correct. Increasingly, theprice of gas – the second most volatile energy commodity – will belinked with the price of power – the most volatile energycommodity, Arledge said.

Natural gas futures closed higher after a weak start yesterdayas traders were able to look past the dismal fundamental outlook tofocus on the short-covering activity at hand. That lifted the Marchcontract a modest 3.4 cents to finish at $1.86 on its first day asthe prompt month.

After nearly two years of deliberation, the Commodity FuturesTrading Commission conditionally approved a new rule permitting theNew York Mercantile Exchange to hold a three-year pilot duringwhich futures contracts can be exchanged for positions in swaptransactions (EFS transactions). Rule 6.21A is designed to providea closer link between the on-exchange futures market andoff-exchange swaps markets, giving off-exchange participantsgreater ability to manage the risks associated with swap positions.

Some traders figured they might as well have taken off Tuesdayfor Martin Luther King Day; the cash market to which they returnedseemed about as quiet and low-key as it had been most of last week.Prices showed little variance from weekend numbers, with mostpoints registering as flat to less than a nickel up or down.

After nearly two years of deliberation, the Commodity FuturesTrading Commission last week conditionally approved a new rule,permitting the New York Mercantile Exchange to hold a three-yearpilot during which futures contracts can be exchanged for positionsin swap transactions (EFS transactions).

Light short-covering buoyed the futures market at the openFriday, as traders exited positions ahead of the holiday weekend.However, sellers above the $1.80 level were waiting and pushed theprompt month to a lower close. The February contract slipped 1.3cents lower to close at $1.796 in Friday’s abbreviated tradingsession. The New York Mercantile Exchange will be closed Monday inobservance of Martin Luther King Day

Natural gas futures turned lower yesterday when a mixed bag ofspeculative and non-speculative selling more than offset light fundbuying. After gapping lower at the open, the February contractquickly mapped out its small, 5-cent trading range and moved verylittle for the remainder of the session. But the price damage hadalready been done, leaving the prompt month 9.6 cents lower tofinish at $1.975 and putting an abrupt halt to a 3-day, 29 centprice spike.

It is said that first impressions are lasting ones, and bulltraders hope that adage applies also to futures contracts,following the market’s dramatic price rally as February’s debutedas the spot month yesterday. February opened Wednesday at Tuesday’shigh and moved 10.5 cents higher for the day to finish at $1.886.At 44,020, estimated volume was light considering the double digitprice move.

As many traders predicted, the futures market continued lowerThursday morning amid a swirl of bearish fundamental factors, whichwere freshly updated Wednesday evening. But the dip wasshort-lived, and afternoon buying bid the spot January contractback up to test resistance, before settling at $1.84, off 0.7 centsfor the day.