Technically

While vast stretches of federal lands technically may be openfor oil and natural gas exploration, producers still are preventedfrom drilling on them because of restrictions in their leases and asevere backlog of drilling permitting requests, the CEO of theAmerican Petroleum Institute (API) said earlier this week.

Technicals, like a roadmap to a traveler, give natural gasfutures traders important clues as to where the market is takingthem. Although fundamental factors must never be ignored, they arehaving a vastly diminished impact during this low demand “shoulder”period. The April contract rocketed higher Tuesday after gappingabove a key technical level on the charts. April finished thesession at $5.621, up 29.9 cents on the session.

With little fresh fundamental news for which to go on, tradersin the natural gas pit at Nymex were cautious Thursday and as aresult neither bull nor bear was able to influence prices much ineither direction. Held to an extremely tight, 11-cent range, Marchprices drifted sideways yesterday, closing just four ticks lower at$5.142.

Despite a lower open and crumbling cash market values, naturalgas bulls fought their way higher on Friday as February pricesmoved above a key momentum number on technician’s charts. TheFebruary contract spent most of day trimming losses incurred duringthe overnight Access session, which paved the way for a lateshort-covering rally. The prompt month finished the day at $7.256,down 1.4 cents for the session but well above its $7.10 openingmark.

A solid blast of cold, wintry weather and a technically bullishfutures screen produced tremendous price increases and enormousprice ranges nationwide last week. On Friday, there was little onthe horizon to change the current market picture other than thenormal weekend decline in demand.

Natural gas futures finished on a sour note for bulls Fridayastechnical follow-through selling met with a bearish weather outlookfor this week. The November contract finished at $5.008, down 14.4cents on the day, 17.8 cents lower for the week, and a crushing55.7 cents off its high, reached less than two weeks ago.

Following a 4-day, 20-cent price rally, bulls in the natural gaspit cooled their heels yesterday as traders took profits amid ahost of negative short-term technical factors. After peaking forthe day shortly after 11:00 A.M. (CST) at $3.165, selling hit themarket in two distinct waves. It was the second thrust that pushedMay below key support at $3.10 to settle at $3.098, down 6 centsfor the session.

What a difference a day can make. Just 27 hours after testingkey support at $2.81, natural gas futures staged a completeturnaround, rallying to its highest daily continuation chartsettlement price this year. Nearly non-existent fundamental factorsgave traders little choice but to rely again on technical tradingtools for price direction. After the May contract posted animpressive gap higher open, that direction was in little doubt. Theprompt contract finished up 6.8 cents at $2.956, just a fraction ofa cent off its $2.96 high and within a nickel of its $3.005all-time high.

Relieving technically overbought conditions and following thelead of weaker mid-morning cash prices, traders ushered natural gasfutures off its morning highs yesterday to notch its first down daysince Wednesday, Feb. 23. The April contract lost 3.2 cents at$2.783.