Stronger

Numbers falling as low as the mid $0.40s in the Rockies and a flat Transco Zone 6-NYC belied an overall stronger cash market Tuesday. Excluding the Rockies and Transco citygate, gains ranged from about a nickel to about 20 cents, with those in the low to mid teens most common.

Both federal and California regulatory authorities plan to assume a stronger market monitoring role in the near future, officials said at the GasMart/Power 2002 conference last Wednesday in Reno.

Higher Over-the-Counter Access pricing, combined with stronger cash market levels set the tone at the New York Mercantile Exchange early yesterday, and bull traders did not waste the opportunity to pressure the natural gas market higher. After gapping up 6.5 at the opening bell, the April contract tested recent highs at the $2.50-51 mark before closing with a 12.9-cent advance on the day at $2.488.

Buoyed by stronger cash market prices driven by a storm bisecting the country Thursday, natural gas prices floated higher throughout the session as traders cautiously covered short positions initiated in the month-long decline. The March contract finished at $2.138 and by virtue of its 5.8-cent advance secured its third straight up-day. There was less interest in the back months, which limited the 12-month strip to a 1.2-cent gain and $2.518 close. Volume was weak, with 75,990 contracts changing hands.

In contrast to forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Salomon Smith Barney of a colder-than-normal winter in key energy consuming regions, WSI Corp.’s end-of-October update to its seasonal forecast for November, December and January predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and in the central and southern Plains. WSI, however, said it expects cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Gulf Coast states, Northern Plains, Great Lakes states, and all areas west of the Rocky Mountains.

After checking higher yesterday morning, natural gas futures made another push to the upside early in the afternoon as traders digested the latest natural gas storage supply data. The October contract received the biggest boost, shuffling 6.1 cents higher to close at $2.420.

The swing market had a lot going for it Monday, and it showed in sharply higher prices at all points. The biggest factor, of course, was more summer-like hot weather returning in several market areas, particularly through the midsection of the United States. In addition, a tropical wave in the Caribbean drew some attention, the screen went up nearly 16 cents, and there was the normal rebound in industrial/commercial load following a weekend.

The Rockies and California border-SoCalGas were the odd markets out Tuesday as the budding rejuvenation of prices in general picked up steam. Most points registered gains between 15 cents and a quarter, with larger advances posted at Pacific Northwest and PG&E-related points.

Natural gas futures were stronger at the open and close yesterday as traders priced in the impact of the first real blast of hot weather across central portions of the country. Nearly gapping higher with its $4.36 opening trade, the June contract sifted slightly lower for much of the day before rebounding convincingly at the closing bell. In doing so the prompt contract not only closed 11.6 cents higher at $4.394, but also managed to fill in the chart gap up to $4.44 on the daily prompt chart.