Stronger

Fueled by stronger cash prices and revised weather forecasts,the futures market erupted higher early yesterday as speculativeand commercial traders added to their positions. However, afternotching the highest mark for a spot month since the week endingDecember 12, 1997 at $2.77, the September contact filtered lower ina quiet afternoon session to settle at $2.721, up 2.3 cents on theday. Estimated volume was light, with 62,221 contracts changinghands.

The cash market was stronger by varying degrees Tuesday withprice movement ranging from flat to about a dime higher. Butsources didn’t expect the firmness to last, since many points wereheading back down along with the screen in late business. Theiroutlook was reinforced when the June futures contract continued todrop in afternoon Access activity.

Producers addled by low prices could take some comfort from atasty lunch served up with a cheerful prediction. Brad Karp,president of Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, told a producerluncheon in Houston last week his company is pretty bullish on gasprices long term.

Brad Karp, president of Duke Energy Trading and Marketing, tolda group of producers in Houston Thursday that his company is prettybullish on the gas price outlook long term.

With conflicting influences in several directions, much of thecash market decided to take a break Thursday and not wander veryfar from Wednesday’s levels. Small gains at most points outweigheda few scattered decreases. Modest strength in the Henry Hub gasfutures contract was countered by crude oil futures falling harderthan it had risen Wednesday, even as the U.S.-led air strikescontinued against Iraq Thursday. And forecasts for widespreadbelow-normal temperatures during Christmas week apparently meantless to gas traders than the current still-relatively-mildconditions.

A combination of stronger cash prices met with and conspiredwith constructive technical factors to lift the futures market forthe 4th straight day Tuesday. November managed a 5.9 cent rally tosettle at $2.202, but the big news of the day centered on the outmonths which posted similarly impressive advances, bringing the3-month strip up 6 cents. Estimated volume was a healthy 69, 463 onthe day.

Once again Tuesday the cash market tended to be stronger to theWest and weaker to the East, although neither region was a model ofconsistency. The West had a couple of flat points, while a few inthe East were flat to slightly higher.

The futures market opened stronger Wednesday, and looked poisedto remain range-bound ahead of the weekly American Gas Association(AGA) storage report. But a crowd of sellers came out in theafternoon, sending the September contract down 6.8 cents to $1.917.Estimated volume was 83,479.

Dynegy CEO Chuck Watson attributed his company’s improved secondquarter performance to stronger margins in the wholesale gas andelectric businesses despite weaker margins in the company’s liquidsbusiness.