Storm

R. Skip Horvath, president of the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA), said Wednesday that the “calm in today’s natural gas prices” is nothing more than “the low side of our normal business cycle,” with volatility normal and expected in a healthy, competitive market. Horvath, speaking at CERAWeek 2002 in Houston, said the market will continue to see swings, requiring producers to understand both the “depths and heights” to make proper investment decisions.

Buoyed by stronger cash market prices driven by a storm bisecting the country Thursday, natural gas prices floated higher throughout the session as traders cautiously covered short positions initiated in the month-long decline. The March contract finished at $2.138 and by virtue of its 5.8-cent advance secured its third straight up-day. There was less interest in the back months, which limited the 12-month strip to a 1.2-cent gain and $2.518 close. Volume was weak, with 75,990 contracts changing hands.

With all eyes focused on updated weather forecasts and fresh storage data, natural gas traders took a “wait and see” approach Tuesday as light short-covering nudged the prompt contract modestly higher. December finished the session at $2.798, up 6.5 cents for the session and near the top of yesterday’s narrow trading band. A healthy estimated volume of 75,656 was surprising, considering the lack of appreciable price movement.

Saying its overall linepack was low because Tropical Storm Barry had “significantly affected receipt gas” and market area demand was strong, Florida Gas Transmission issued an Overage Alert Day for Monday’s gas day with a 10% tolerance for negative daily imbalances.

Due to the uncertainty posed by Tropical Storm Barry, Tennessee has delayed the start of a 500 Line outage until Tuesday. The work previously was set to begin today (see Daily GPI, Aug. 3).

Buoyed by follow-through buying on the heels of Wednesday’s late price surge and in reaction to weather forecasts (both for hot temps next week as well as the formation of Tropical Depression 2), natural gas futures shuffled higher for the third session in a row Thursday as short-covering promoted prices to new week-and-a-half highs. At the closing bell, the August contract was knocking on the door of some important technical levels, up 8.6 cents at $3.428.

More than one trader was more than a bit surprised at the price run-up in most markets Tuesday in two-day deals covering the Fourth of July holiday, which normally is considered one of the lowest demand periods of the year. Only Rockies/San Juan/Pacific Northwest points and a few Northeast citygates softened, in contrast with numbers elsewhere that ranged from flat to about 15 cents higher outside California and gains at California points that exceeded half a dollar.

As yet another storm in what is shaping up to be one of thesnowiest winters on record pummeled New England Friday, natural gasfutures spiraled higher only to reverse lower at mid-day as tradersstared ahead at bearish intermediate-term temperature and storageoutlooks. The May contract tumbled lower under the considerableselling pressure to close at $5.025, leaving the prompt month witha 24.9-cent loss to conclude the week. Considering the size of theprice move, volume was relatively weak as less than 60,000contracts changed hands.

Despite prospects for a potentially severe winter storm in theNortheast and moderate screen firmness, the cash market generallyranged from flat to down about 20 cents Friday, as falling weekenddemand made an impact. Northern California numbers retreated fromThursday’s spike, but the Southern California border tacked on morethan $2.50 to its market-leading average.