Stage

Pacific Gas & Electric extended a high-inventory Stage 1 OFObegun Friday (see Daily GPI, July 9)through Saturday but loosened the tolerance for positive dailyimbalances from 5% to 21%. Above-target linepack was projectedthrough today. PG&E’s neighbor to the south, Southern CaliforniaGas, declared a similar Overnominations Day for Saturday but had a 10%imbalance tolerance.

The stage was set for expiration day pyrotechnics Monday at theNew York Mercantile Exchange. Bulls were confident they could addto the string of five higher highs and higher lows notched on thedaily charts last week. On the other hand, bears believed theconfluence of mild temperatures and follow-through on the heels ofFridays price erosion would set the tone early yesterday. They wereboth wrong. Except for a late and almost inconsequential bliphigher, the July contract was a model of stability yesterday, wherebuying and selling matched up nearly perfectly. July closed out itstenure as spot month up a meager 0.4 cents to settle at $2.262. TheAugust contract finished up 3.2 at $2.324.

A high-inventory Stage 1 OFO implemented Sunday by Pacific Gas& Electric was continued through Monday and today. Sunday’s 15%imbalance tolerance was reduced to 6% Monday, but the noncompliancepenalty remains at $1/dth. PG&E projected that its linepackinventory would continue to be 200 MMcf or more above the utility’starget through Thursday.

The cash market was stronger by varying degrees Tuesday withprice movement ranging from flat to about a dime higher. Butsources didn’t expect the firmness to last, since many points wereheading back down along with the screen in late business. Theiroutlook was reinforced when the June futures contract continued todrop in afternoon Access activity.

Thursday night’s Access gains, and higher prices in both theover-the-counter and cash market set the stage for the May futurescontract to blast off Friday. In fact, the buzz around the pit atNymex early Friday centered on when, not if, the prompt month wouldfill in the chart gap up to $2.19. But despite all the hoopla andbullish sentiment, the May contract could manage only a half-pennygain from its $2.16 open, leaving the market to trend lowerthroughout the rest of the day. May finished 1.3 cents lower at$2.124.

Pacific Gas & Electric issued a low-inventory Stage 1 OFOfor today carrying penalties of $1/dth for negative imbalancesexceeding 5% of scheduled volumes.

Lacking any influence from weather or a flat screen, cash pricesranged from flat to down about a nickel Wednesday. Nearly alldeclines were by smaller amounts than the increases that hadpreceded them Tuesday. In one marketer’s view, “Apparently priceswent back down to compensate for Tuesday’s unsupported rise.There’s no weather and no [pipeline capacity] restrictions.”

A storage report considered bearish by most traders set thestage for softness in the cash market Thursday, then a plungingfutures screen virtually guaranteed cash declines. Sure enough,nearly every point fell between 5 and 8 cents. “We’re just tradingdown with the screen,” said a Western marketer.

Canada’s National Energy Board gave natural-gas exporters alicense to grow by approving the Alliance Pipeline Project, but theboard included a warning of the risks of excess capacity: pricecuts and strained supplies.