Spikes

Triple-digit spikes at Northeast and Chicago citygates topped price increases at most points Friday. The show of strength even reached into the production area as Northern Natural-Ventura and Tennessee’s 500 Leg got in on the act with advances exceeding $2 and $1, respectively. The market reacted to predictions that the coldest weather so far in the heating season will be firmly entrenched in most areas by the beginning of this week.

The cash market continued to move higher at most points Friday, but at a substantially reduced rate from the spikes seen on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday of last week. Several locations were flat to nearly a quarter lower, reflecting forecasts that some areas would see a bit of moderation from cold weather over the weekend and the typical drop of industrial load.

While small increases in energy prices are expected, spikes to last year’s record high levels are unlikely, according to a new survey of treasury and finance professionals conducted last week at the Association for Financial Professionals (AFP) annual conference.

While small increases in energy prices are expected, spikes to last year’s record high levels are unlikely, according to a new survey of treasury and finance professionals conducted Monday at the Association for Financial Professionals (AFP) annual conference.

Not including triple-digit spikes in the Rockies where a major transportation constraint was ending, the rest of the market was mixed Tuesday but with a decided bias to the downside. Prices felt negative pressure from very little cooling demand remaining but not much heating load to replace it; a 4-cent screen drop the day before; and reviving concerns that a dearth of storage injection capacity could lead to production shut-ins, according to some analysts.

Forecasts of triple-digit temperatures helped ignite triple-digit price spikes Monday at quite a few points in the Gulf Coast and Northeast. All cash trading points were up by at least 30 cents. Transco Zone 6-New York City led the climb with a humongous gain of nearly $1.70.

A Gulf Coast producer couldn’t pinpoint any single factor behind a major price rebound Tuesday that included spikes of a dollar or more at a few Northeast citygates, but said it more likely was related to a combination of several relatively minor things. However, a marketer in the Lower Midwest saw one overriding reason for the sharp increases: more power generation load.

The natural gas industry had a lot of troublemakers shaking things up last year, with price spikes, up-and-down weather and hurricane-related supply disruptions. Energy traders, though, managed to take a lot of those lemons and make lemonade, with all but one of NGI’s top 10 North American gas marketers squeezing out strong gains for the final quarter of 2005, and all but one showing strong gains for the year.

Triple-digit spikes at Northeast citygates stood out amid otherwise mixed pricing Friday that nevertheless had a major bias toward the upside. The extra Northeast strength was hardly surprising, since that region was destined to bear the brunt of a weekend return to widespread, very cold weather.