Spikes

Prices resumed a mostly moderate climb Monday after having last week’s four-day series of spikes interrupted Friday. Although cold weather was easing a bit after setting date-specific records for low temperatures over the weekend, there was still quite a bit of chill in northern forecasts to keep heating load fairly strong.

Some traders are crying foul with regards to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) electronic Globex trading system following last Thursday morning’s knee-jerk spike in front-month natural gas futures of nearly 75 cents. Some traders complained that their orders were not filled following the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) storage report release at 10:30 a.m. EDT, which sparked the run-up in prices. The trading exchange said Friday that no glitches were reported on the system.

Northeastern citygate spikes in anticipation of much colder regional weather early this week belied an overall market that continued to soften in most cases Friday. However, Thursday’s 4.8-cent uptick by April futures and forecasts of sub-freezing temperatures Sunday in the Midwest added several rising points in the Gulf Coast and Midwest to the Northeast gains Friday, in contrast to losses at nearly all points a day earlier.

Double-digit spikes at Northeast citygates led an overall price rally Monday as low temperatures around freezing or less were in the forecast for Tuesday in the Northeast, Midwest and some sections of the South and West. The return of industrial demand from its typical weekend decline was another mildly bullish factor in the market, while last Friday’s 7.2-cent drop by March futures apparently had limited impact.

Spikes at Northeast citygates Tuesday didn’t get much company elsewhere in the firming category. Most points declined as moderating weather trends in the western half of the South, Midcontinent and Midwest limited overall heating load. The previous Friday’s 4.2-cent drop by February futures was another mildly negative factor for the cash market.

Except for conspicuous spikes at Northeast citygates, price movement was mixed Thursday with most points moving only a few cents up or down. Forecasts of frigid temperatures Friday and continuing into the weekend from the Northeast to the Rockies proved to be more influential than the previous day’s 11.1-cent decline by February futures; the result was a solid majority of rising quotes.

Western spikes led an overall rally by the cash market Monday as cooling load was ample in Eastern Canada and much of the U.S. The previous Thursday’s 18.8-cent gain by August futures and the return of industrial demand from a long holiday weekend absence were also bullish factors.

Spot prices soared as high as $16 Monday at Transco Zone 6-New York City as triple-digit spikes at Northeast citygates were way out in front of strong gains across the board. The weekend blast of cold across the Midwest and Northeast is proving to have more staying power and be more severe than forecasts had indicated late last week. The cash market also had support from last Friday’s 19.9-cent advance by March futures and the return of industrial load from weekend hiatus.

Triple-digit spikes at Northeast citygates led advances at nearly all points in last Friday’s trading for the first two days of January. The coldest and most widespread frigid weather of the winter season so far is expected to be in place in most of the U.S. and Canada as the new year begins.