Screen

End-of-January prices reacted to moderating weather trends (either already under way or impending), Thursday’s screen loss of a dime, and lower weekend industrial load by dropping across the board Friday. The Northeast again was far out in front in leading the charge downward with multi-dollar plunges that had citygates returning to something more closely resembling “normal” levels.

Responding to generally weak weather-related demand, healthy use of storage and the screen’s pre-New Year’s Eve drop of about a quarter, swing prices continued to decline Monday in the still-nascent new year. The common range of declines between about 20 cents and about 65 cents reflected larger drops than occurred last Thursday in most cases.

With many traders heading for the holiday weekend early, the natural gas futures screen on Wednesday was quiet, with the prompt month trading within a 20-cent range for the entire session. After reaching a low of $6.73, January natural gas settled at $6.82, a 3.6-cent decline on the day.

Monday’s half-dollar screen plunge and a transitory moderation of cold weather in parts of the East resulted in falling cash prices at nearly all points Tuesday. Northeast citygate numbers, which had held up most firmly through Monday with sizeable gains amid that day’s overall softening, were in free-fall Tuesday with dollar-plus losses in most cases.

Instead of “following the screen” strength of the previous few days, cash prices found weak fundamentals to be a more compelling influence Friday. Quotes dropped across the board by anywhere from a little more than a nickel to more than 40 cents. The largest declines tended to cluster in the West and Northeast, while most of the smallest ones were in the Gulf Coast.

Entering a period of milder weather and spurred by the previous day’s screen loss of nearly 22 cents, prices kept falling across the board Wednesday. However, the decline pace slowed considerably. Wednesday’s drops ranged as high as about 30 cents in the Northeast, but were in single digits at a slight majority of points.

An absence of severe weather threats, lower industrial load over a weekend, and the screen’s previous-day quarter decline set the stage for further mostly moderate softening in a sedate Friday market. A small uptick in Tennessee Zone 6 ran contrary to losses at all other points ranging from less than a nickel to nearly 30 cents.

It hadn’t reached the southern tier of states or Mid-Atlantic quite yet, but wintry conditions or a reasonable facsimile dominated the weather picture Wednesday and forecasts for the next few days in the rest of the U.S. and Canada. The cash market responded with major gains that were as small as 15-30 cents in most of the West but hit 35-70 cents or so throughout the East.

Deja vu? Similar to last Monday’s market, rising cash prices Friday derived much of their support from previous-day futures strength. They certainly weren’t getting much benefit from weather fundamentals. Although high temperatures in the 90s and above continued to reign from the western Gulf Coast through the Midcontinent, desert Southwest and Rockies into parts of the Upper Plains, those conditions were largely unchanged from Thursday. The key Midwest and Northeast market areas remain unusually mild for early August.