Return

Because trading was for Monday-only deliveries, when most of the U.S. and Canada could anticipate a return of colder weather after some moderation during the holiday weekend, prices were up at most points Wednesday. The timing also allowed the cash market to ignore a 44.1-cent plunge by January futures a day earlier.

Regardless of the causes and responses to the global credit crunch, natural gas prices are going to return to double-digit levels during the next 18 months, according to two industry economic experts speaking Tuesday at the LDC Forum Rockies & West Conference in Irvine, CA. The fact the the financial crisis is global in scope ultimately will help pull the world out of it quicker, and energy prices will be quick to rebound, they said.

Initial expectations of a rapid return of Gulf of Mexico (GOM) oil and gas production from the outages caused by hurricanes Gustav and Ike appeared to be overly optimistic by Wednesday, and both the cash and futures markets were firmer in response. And although substantial cooling load is still subpar for mid-September in most areas, some slightly premature heating load is arriving to displace it, especially in the Northeast.

Moderate warming trends in parts of the Midwest and Northeast, along with Friday’s 13.3-cent uptick by July futures and the return of industrial load from its typical weekend decline, propelled the cash market to gains at a large majority of points Monday.

The fundamentals are in place for exploration and production (E&P) companies to spend more on drilling programs and deliver a healthy return on the money they spend, provided they earn a New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) natural gas price of around $8.75/Mcf, according to energy analyst John Gerdes.

The fundamentals are in place for exploration and production (E&P) companies to spend more on drilling programs and deliver a healthy return on the money they spend, provided they earn a New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) natural gas price of around $8.75/Mcf, according to energy analyst John Gerdes.

After riding the roller-coaster of a session Monday up to a $9.595 high only to return to the station with a 2-cent loss at $9.346, natural gas futures traders were content to mostly sit on the sidelines Tuesday, perhaps in an effort to recover from motion sickness. The April contract traded in a quiet 18-cent range between $9.270 and $9.450 before closing out the day at $9.353, up less than a penny.

A large majority of points rose Thursday in response to harsh winter weather either already in place or about to return. But despite a cold front moving through Friday, the Northeast forecast wasn’t cold enough to prevent losses of up to about 45 cents at regional citygates. New York City deliveries fell about 35 cents as the Big Apple is slated to have temperatures peak around a quite unseasonable 50 degrees Friday (but the low will be sub-freezing).

The return of cold weather and prior-day screen support combined to keep prices rising at nearly all points Wednesday, but with the exception of the Northeast, the gains were considerably smaller than Tuesday’s in most cases. Production-area receipts into Columbia Gulf were suspended following a tornado-caused explosion Tuesday night at a Tennessee compressor station (see related story).