Release

Despite the release of seemingly neutral storage data (46 Bcf withdrawal), the natural gas futures market turned lower Thursday as traders decided to test the bottom end of the market’s recent trading band. Although the selling was steady throughout the session, the downward momentum was not enough to demote spot month prices below support at $5.60. April closed for the session at $5.631, down 9.1 cents for the day.

With traders unwilling to bet too heavily ahead of the release of fresh inventory data Thursday, the natural gas futures market continued its sideways price action Wednesday. By virtue of the modest mid-morning sell-off, bears were able to claim the day as a victory, with April prices slipping 4.1 cents to close at $5.397.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released complete details of its new weekly gas storage survey methodology in preparation for the release on Thursday morning of the first weekly gas storage estimates using the new design. The agency also said last week that on Thursday it would revise 16 weeks of previously released weekly gas storage data back to July 4 (see Daily GPI, Oct. 24).

After checking lower in the moments following the 10:30 a.m. ET release of fresh storage data (70 Bcf injection), the natural gas futures market worked its way higher late Thursday morning and afternoon as buyers sided with the seasonal tendency for prices to climb during the month of September. As it turns out, that buying was enough to withstand two distinct selling surges Thursday morning as technical traders attempted to induce a move below key support levels at $4.55 and $4.44. October finished the session at $4.81, up 11.6 cents for the session.

Like a locomotive slowly gaining momentum, the natural gas futures market chugged higher Wednesday as traders lifted the market off early lows in anticipation of a bullish reaction to Thursday’s gas storage report. Although it missed matching Monday’s $5.25 high by a few ticks, the May contract impressed traders with its 8.7-cent advance and $5.195 close.

After spiking to a new high for the week in the moments following the release of a larger-than-anticipated 85 Bcf storage withdrawal, the natural gas futures market went lower in the late morning and afternoon Thursday as sellers liquidated positions ahead of an expected weekend weather warm-up. April crested at $5.62 at 11:15, up 34 cents from Wednesday’s settle, but then tumbled back down to $5.17 by the middle of the afternoon. It closed at $5.306, up 2.8 cents for the session.

After edging modestly higher in the 30 minutes following release of storage data showing a 208 Bcf withdrawal, the natural gas futures market kicked into overdrive at 11 a.m. Thursday as bulls made another attempt at the $6.00 mark. However, after notching a new all-time high in March futures and a new 23-month prompt contract top, the market slumped at the close, denying bulls their coveted $6.00 print yet again. March finished at $5.828, up 18.4 cents for the session but 8.2 cents off its new $5.91 peak.

In reaction to forecasts calling for moderating temperatures and in anticipation of Thursday’s release of fresh storage data, natural gas futures slumped Wednesday amid light long liquidation. And although the March contract finished with a 11.8-cent decline for the session to close at $5.644, it remains in an uptrend on the daily chart. Estimated volume was heavy, with an estimated 101,308 contracts changing hands.

After spiking higher moments after the release of fresh storage data showing a 247 Bcf withdrawal last week, natural gas futures slumped late Thursday morning as traders alleviated overbought conditions. Modest upticks were seen in the afternoon as bargain buying entered the fray. And though it was down 4.6 cents to $5.583 on its first day as prompt contract at Nymex, March was able to notch a higher high and a higher low for the session, giving some traders hope that another rally — while not likely — is possible.