Rearview

With 2Q2010 earnings results now in the rearview mirror, energy analysts covering the domestic exploration and production (E&P) sector paused to review what they saw in the earnings reports and what they heard in the conference calls. What they concluded isn’t necessarily a pretty picture for the second half of this year.

As natural gas traders put 2007 firmly in their rearview mirrors, the focus now surrounds what exactly might be in store for prices in 2008. With traders widely agreeing that the days of $2-3/MMBtu are long gone, whether 2008 sees $5-6/MMBtu gas or $7-9/MMBtu gas will be largely influenced by the weather picture and whether increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes find their way to North America’s shores.

As natural gas traders put 2007 firmly in their rearview mirrors, the focus now surrounds what exactly might be in store for prices in 2008. With traders widely agreeing that the days of $2-3/MMBtu are long gone, whether 2008 sees $5-6/MMBtu gas or $7-9/MMBtu gas will be largely influenced by the weather picture and whether increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes find their way to North America’s shores.

Neglecting fundamentals and running with technicals alone, the Nymex June natural gas futures contract ceased its flirting with the psychological $6 mark on Monday by barreling through it — setting a new June high of $6.25. The contract backed off slightly in late afternoon trading to close at $6.231, up a whopping 36.9 cents on the day and 12.1 cents over the previous June high of $6.11.

TXU Corp.’s exit from Europe last fall pushed the Dallas-based utility to huge fourth quarter losses, with the write off of $4.2 billion on its failed investments overseas. However, management said it would “aggressively” refocus on North American and Australian assets going forward, estimating its growth “beyond” 2003 would be in the range of 4-6%.