Rally

The price rally that had begun Monday didn’t reverse entirely but appeared to be losing some steam Wednesday. More than a few points were able to extend previous gains by small amounts, but even more were faltering due to declining heating load in some areas and the previous day’s downturn of 6.3 cents by April futures.

Cold weather trends managed to sustain a substantive cash rally into a second straight day for the first time in more than a week Thursday. Even a 3.4-cent retreat by December futures a day earlier failed to keep prices from rising by double digits at most points again.

Except for an enclave of still-rising points in the New England market, the latest cold spell wasn’t any more successful in sustaining a price rally than others in recent weeks have been. Modest warming trends in the Midwest and lower Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, along with a plunge of 20.6 cents by December futures a day earlier, pushed a large majority of points lower by double-digit amounts Tuesday.

The cash price rally that began rather timidly at the start of this week continued to gain momentum Wednesday as cooler weather trends manifested themselves in the Midwest and South. Prices rose at all points despite expectations that cold spells going into the weekend would be short-lived.

The modest Midwest warming trend that had helped boost most of the market slightly a day earlier proved to be short-lived, and so did the small rally as prices fell at a majority of locations Thursday.

Wednesday’s rally in natural gas futures values differed from the ones on both Monday and Tuesday in that the September contract was able to hold on to most of the day’s gains. After reaching a high of $4.756, the prompt-month contract closed the regular session at $4.737, up 9.8 cents from Tuesday.

The cash market had plenty of help in achieving increases at most locations Wednesday. There was the previous day’s rally by August futures, rising temperatures in several regions boosting power generation demand, and the lingering potential for a tropical storm approaching the offshore production area by early next week.

A “single event” might push natural gas prices to the $8/Mcf level in 2011, but several events in combination “could certainly rally prices,” a trio of Barclays Capital analysts said Tuesday.

July natural gas futures retreated on Tuesday as the market shrugged off a day on the calendar that bulls in the recent past have used to start a rally. The prompt-month contract dropped 9.3 cents Tuesday to close at $4.248.