Rally

It was a tale of two markets Friday at the New York MercantileExchange. Softer cash market prices helped push futures priceslower early in the trading session. Those losses, however, werequickly erased in the afternoon as traders weighed the impact offorecasts calling for warming temperatures this week. The Julycontract finished at $2.437, 4 cents higher for the day and 7.9cents for the week.

After a quick check lower to fill in a small chart gap, thefutures market continued higher last Friday in an abbreviated, butextremely active trading session. The July contract finished up 7.6cents to $2.358, capping a two-day, 14.8-cent advance. Estimatedvolume was 66,263.

Fresh off a 5-cent rally in Wednesday night’s Access session thefutures market bulldozed higher yesterday amid light speculativebuying. July finished its first day as the prompt month up 7.2cents to $2.282, after notching a $2.30 high early Thursdayafternoon. Estimated volume was heavy, with 85,664 contractschanging hands.

After posting 7.3 cent rally to kick off the week Monday, thefutures market found itself in a spirited see-saw battle pittingprice-optimistic bulls versus price skeptical bears Tuesday. In theend however, the market sided with the trend as the bulls came awaywith their fifth gain in as many days by nudging the May contract3.2 cents higher to $2.331. The May contract expires today at 3:10EST.

Feeding off late gains notched by the expiring April contractMonday, May kicked off its campaign as the spot month at Nymexyesterday by continuing higher in active trading. And whereas Aprilcontract made its mark in a late short squeeze, May was promptedhigher throughout the day by a steady stream of commercial andspeculative buying. Several sources also pointed to buy-stoporders, which were triggered as the market moved through the$1.93-95 range as a reason for the strength. May finished up 9.5cents at $1.978.

The near two-week futures rally from an apparent winter lowcontinued yesterday during the regular trading session helped by amajor winter storm that swept through the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic andNortheast and about a dime rise in cash prices. The April contractbroke through strong resistance and posted a new high of $1.965before backtracking to a low of $1.885 and then rebounding to closethe day up 1.3 cents at $1.941/MMBtu. A less-than-expected storagewithdrawal of 69 Bcf, however, helped push futures down sharplyduring the overnight Access trading session. As of 6:30 p.m. (EST),April was down 4.1 cents from the close to $1.900.

After two brief rally efforts failed to produce higher prices,the futures market again came under selling pressure as moreprominent bearish fundamentals more than offset below-normal marketarea temperatures. And in a rare occurrence, the 4.1-cent loss seenin the prompt March contract was outpaced by more substantiallosses in the April, May, June and July contracts.

Despite a disappointing storage report and continuedabove-normal temperatures across the country, natural gas futuresbubbled higher yesterday as technical traders found good value inprices near the bottom end of the recent trading range. And byadvancing 6.2 cents to settle at $1.837, the March contract notonly washed clean Wednesday’s declines but also positioned itselfback in the middle of the $1.725-925 trading range. Estimatedvolume was a somewhat lackluster 61,716 contracts.

Market participants cited short-covering and relatively strongcash prices as the main reasons for a 7.4-cent gain turned in bythe March Nymex contract Tuesday. The contract flirted around theminor resistance level of $1.81 for most of the day before settlingslightly higher at $1.818.