Predictions

Revising their predictions on the eve of the official start to hurricane season, Colorado State University’s William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach said the 2005 hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin is now expected to be “well-above average,” an upgrade from their early April prediction for an “above-average” hurricane season (see NGI, April 4). Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 20.

Revising their predictions on the eve of the official start to hurricane season, Colorado State University’s William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach said the 2005 hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin is now expected to be “well-above average,” an upgrade from their early April prediction for an “above-average” hurricane season. Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 20.

The cash market relied on new cold fronts forecast for Tuesday in the Northeast and South, along with predictions of temperatures well below early-March norms in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes sections of the Midwest, to push prices higher at nearly all points Monday. Delayed support from Friday’s futures gain of nearly 9 cents and the restoration of industrial load from its usual weekend slump aided the climb.

With some national predictions for an easing of natural gas prices in the last weeks of winter, Pacific Gas and Electric Co. predicted lower retail utility bills for its gas customers this month, noting it expects the average utility bill to drop 17% in February, compared with January gas bills. The utility cited reduced wholesale prices and lower demand by customers.

To borrow from Mark Twain, rumors of the futures uptrend’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. One day ahead of expiration, November futures reversed course from Monday’s decline on speculation that Thursday morning might see a significantly lower injection than anticipated. The prompt month posted a 51.2-cent jump to settle at $8.402.

To borrow from Mark Twain, rumors of the futures uptrend’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. One day ahead of expiration, November futures reversed course from Monday’s decline on speculation that Thursday morning might see a significantly lower injection than anticipated. The prompt month posted a 51.2-cent jump to settle at $8.402.

Despite failing miserably in their prior $8/MMBtu gas price predictions for this summer and fall (see NGI, July 5), analysts at Raymond James & Associates said in their “Stat of the Week” that once the weather returns to normal, bullish gas market fundamentals will again push prices sharply higher. Meanwhile, other forecasters are saying the opposite, predicting prices will collapse this fall (see related story).

Despite failing miserably in their prior $8/MMBtu gas price predictions for this summer and fall (see Daily GPI, June 29), analysts at Raymond James & Associates said in their “Stat of the Week” that once the weather returns to normal, bullish gas market fundamentals will again push prices sharply higher. As a result, the analysts have raised their gas price forecast for 2005 yet again to $6.65 from $6.25. They also bumped up their crude oil price forecast for the fourth quarter to $40/bbl from $36.

Duke Energy’s second quarter ongoing earnings were sharply higher than Wall Street estimates and were up 12 cents from 2Q2003 on strong performance from utility, field services, gas transmission and real estate operations, but losses from Duke Energy North America (DENA), the company’s marketing, trading and merchant power arm, continued to be a significant drag on results.