Predictions

Looking at temperature predictions over the next three months, Andover, MA-based WSI Corp. said it expects the northwest and the coastal cities of California to average colder than normal conditions while a majority of the southern U.S. and the East are anticipated to see warmer than normal readings.

Joining the ranks of forecasters who are slashing their 2006 Atlantic hurricane activity predictions, Andover, MA-based WSI Corp. downgraded its outlook Wednesday for the second time in two months. WSI said it now expects the tropical season to have 13 named storms, six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater).

Despite the current surplus of gas in storage and some predictions that working gas levels could end the injection season at maximum capacity near 3.7 Tcf, Chris McGill, managing director of policy analysis at the American Gas Association (AGA), warned gas buyers not to bet on it.

Despite the current surplus of gas in storage and some predictions that working gas levels could end the injection season at maximum capacity near 3.7 Tcf, Chris McGill, managing director of policy analysis at the American Gas Association (AGA), warned gas buyers not to bet on it.

A prior-day screen rally and predictions of daily highs in the 80s and 90s Thursday across most of the southern half of the U.S. propelled the cash market to further gains at virtually all points Wednesday. In many instances Wednesday’s upticks were close to a repeat of those that came a day earlier.

According to the American Gas Association (AGA), predictions of a declining natural gas reserve base are premature. However, the industry is working harder to replace reserves. And most notably, onshore unconventional resources are being relied upon more heavily, and that is having consequences for gas production.

Predictions that Tuesday’s rally confirmed natural gas futures’ near-term bottom at $8.700 appeared to be premature as Wednesday’s trading session trolled even lower. February natural gas carved out a low of $8.505 before settling at $8.694, down 47.4 cents on the day.

Many of the predictions, cost estimates and energy price forecasts in the National Petroleum Council’s (NPC) $30 million study in 2003 on Balancing Natural Gas Policy came up well short of what actually transpired over the last two years, but its policy recommendations remain right on the money, according to many presenters at the Department of Energy’s (DOE) roundtable on Balancing Natural Gas Supply and Demand Tuesday in Washington, DC.

With path predictions surrounding Hurricane Wilma currently looking more and more as if the storm will spare the producing areas of the Gulf of Mexico, energy traders sighed in relief Tuesday. Gapping lower by over 50 cents following the overnight Access trading session, November natural gas on Tuesday ended up settling at $13.421, down 46.6 cents on the day.