Predicting

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is predicting that natural gas spot prices will remain in the $4.80-$5.50/MMBtu range for the rest of 2003, assuming normal weather. Natural gas wellhead prices are projected to average $4.97/Mcf for the year, an increase of about $2/Mcf over the 2002 annual average, which will be the largest annual wellhead price increase on record, EIA said in its September Short Term Energy Outlook.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is predicting that natural gas spot prices will remain in the $4.80-$5.50/MMBtu range for the rest of 2003, assuming normal weather. Natural gas wellhead prices are projected to average $4.97/Mcf for the year, an increase of about $2/Mcf over the 2002 annual average, which will be the largest annual wellhead price increase on record, EIA said in its September Short Term Energy Outlook.

Consultants at Energy and Environmental Analysis Inc. (EEA) are predicting that given normal weather, natural gas storage levels will drop to near record lows at 600 Bcf by the end of the traditional withdrawal season because of an alarming decline in U.S. natural gas producing capacity. However, an oil and gas engineer with the Energy Information Administration said he isn’t buying any “sky is falling” scenarios. He said productive capacity is very near where it has been historically.

Fitch Ratings on Friday raised its previous oil and gas price estimates for the year, predicting natural gas prices will stabilize at $2.50/Mcf, and move to $2.75/Mcf in ’03, as production slowly creeps up toward the end of ’02. However, Fitch analyst Sean Sexton warned that the strip prices for gas still “may soften somewhat” with storage expected to be high through the year. “We estimate that currently, there is still half the gas in storage for next year…filling won’t be a problem even if demand comes back a little quicker.”

In a new report, the Minerals Management Service has updated its Gulf of Mexico forecast for daily oil and gas production, predicting that between now and 2005, gas production will be 11.10 Bcf/d to 16.54 Bcf/d and oil production will be 1.526 MMbbl/d to 1.967 MMbbl/d. The greatest potential for development, said the federal agency, is in deepwater of 1,000 feet or more.

In a new report, the Minerals Management Service has updated its Gulf of Mexico forecast for daily oil and gas production, predicting that between now and 2005, gas production will be 11.10 Bcf/d to 16.54 Bcf/d and oil production will be 1.526 MMbbl/d to 1.967 MMbbl/d. The greatest potential for development, said the federal agency, is in deepwater of 1,000 feet or more.

TransCanada PipeLines is predicting earnings growth of between7% and 10% in 2001 based on stable revenue resulting from a newmainline transmission settlement, the performance of its powerbusiness, and projected cost savings from numerous divestitures,including a cut back in gas marketing.

Hurricane guru William Gray of Colorado State University is predicting a relatively quiet tropical weather season in the Atlantic and Caribbean next year mainly because of a weak to moderate El Nino. Gray expects nine named storms. Five storms would become hurricanes and two of those would be major hurricanes.

Hurricane guru William Gray of Colorado State University ispredicting a relatively quiet tropical weather season in theAtlantic and Caribbean next year mainly because of a weak tomoderate El Nino. Gray expects nine named storms. Five storms wouldbecome hurricanes and two of those would be major hurricanes.