Predicting

ExxonMobil Corp. released its 2004 Energy Outlook Thursday, predicting that global natural gas demand will grow about 2.2%/year through 2030, remaining the fastest of any major fuel over that period and reaching a 25% share of total energy consumption by 2030.

ExxonMobil Corp. released its 2004 Energy Outlook Thursday, predicting that global natural gas demand will grow about 2.2%/year through 2030, remaining the fastest of any major fuel over that period and reaching a 25% share of total energy consumption by 2030.

It might be smart to get out the heating blankets a little early this winter, according to AccuWeather.com meteorologists, who are predicting winter could get an early start in the Great Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast as below-normal temperatures are forecasted for the period October through December. The State College, PA-based forecasting agency predicted the potential early start to winter in its latest 30 to 90-day forecast.

It might be smart to get out the heating blankets a little early this winter, according to AccuWeather.com meteorologists, who are predicting winter could get an early start in the Great Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast as below-normal temperatures are forecasted for the period October through December. The State College, PA-based forecasting agency predicted the potential early start to winter in its latest 30 to 90-day forecast.

Spot gas prices were sharply higher on Monday as 2.9 Bcf/d of Gulf of Mexico gas production remained shut in, according to the latest report from the Minerals Management Service (MMS). Several gas processing plants remained down and some Gulf pipelines, particularly Southern Natural and Tennessee Gas, continued to have difficulty returning to normal flows because of damage suffered during Hurricane Ivan.

While many industry consultants and analysts are predicting that gas prices will escalate to more than $7/MMBtu as soon as this winter and will hold at that level through next year (see Daily GPI, July 22), Massachusetts-based Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) believes the market is underestimating the substantial impact from increasing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and will be in for quite a surprise near the end of the storage injection season.

Results from a 43-company survey have led analysts at Southwest Securities to believe domestic gas production may actually show a sequential increase for the second quarter compared to first quarter levels, but still will be down sharply compared to levels during the same quarter last year. In contrast, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that production ended the quarter flat sequentially and year-to-year.

Predicting domestic gas production may be more of an art than a science. Forecasts of top analysts, consultants and the federal government vary so widely as to make them all almost unusable.

After solidly predicting the Arctic cold front that has frozen New England (see NGI, Jan. 12), Joe Bastardi, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather.com, said last week that the region is not out of the woods yet.