Overbought

The unexpected happened again on Tuesday when natural gas cash and futures prices defied the slightly cooler weather trend, the overbought conditions on Nymex, the absence of a threatening hurricane and the lofty height of price levels — and proceeded to continue climbing.

The July gas futures contract slid 19.6 cents lower on Monday to $6.314, succumbing to overbought conditions, pressure from strong gas storage injections, a declining storage deficit and normal temperatures across most of the nation.

Despite overbought conditions and forecasts calling for warming temperatures, natural gas futures finished the week on a positive note Friday as traders bid the market higher in sympathy with cash prices that remain at a premium to futures. There also was apprehension of the release of potentially bullish storage data Thursday. However, the gains were a winter-month-only phenomenon, as advances in February and March were in sharp contrast to losses throughout the rest of the contracts.

Alleviating overbought conditions, natural gas futures sifted lower Friday as traders took profits ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. By checking down to its $5.44 low for the session, the February contract filled in a key level on the charts. It closed at $5.536, down 10.9 cents for the session. Estimated volume was light in Friday’s abbreviated session.

Despite overbought conditions and a market that many felt could go no higher, natural gas futures defied gravity yet again Monday, as bulls rebounded strongly from a lackluster morning sell-off. With that the September contract achieved a new three-and-a-half-month high, gaining 13 cents to close at $3.617. Estimated volume was light to moderate at 93,696.

Natural gas futures finished on a sour note Wednesday as tradersalleviated overbought conditions and took profits both before andafter the release of fresh storage data. After opening lower, theApril contract worked its way down throughout much of the sessionbefore tumbling at the closing bell to finish at $2.71. The promptmonth’s 8.9-cent decline was trumped only by the May contract,which dropped 9 cents to finish as $2.747. Estimated volume wasmodest with only 63,810 contracts changing hands.

Despite the coldest weather of the season, the futures markettumbled lower yesterday as traders relieved technical overboughtconditions by unloading new long positions. Cash prices, whichslipped for only the second time in eight trading sessions, werealso seen as a negative factor. After opening near the bottom ofMonday’s wide trading range, bears wasted little time takingJanuary down 10.7 cents to settle at $2.522.