Outpace

Natural gas production will outpace demand growth over the next five years (2010-2015), keeping a lid on prices, despite what the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) futures strip looks like now, according to Bentek Energy LLC.

Although economic growth has resumed, the increase in corporate expenditures wasn’t great enough to stem the rising tide of credit-rating downgrades during the second quarter, said Moody’s Investors Service last week. In fact, it reported that credit-rating downgrades exceeded upgrades by a margin of 4.9-to-1 during the period, the highest ratio since the record 6.3-to-1 in the fourth quarter of 1990.

The number of domestic natural gas wells drilled during the third quarter of this year rose a whopping 24%, while oil wells drilled climbed at a slower pace — 8%, according to the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) Quarterly Well Completion Report.

Natural gas demand will rise with growth in electric generation, but gas supply appears to be growing at an even faster pace, according to Energy Security Analysis Inc.(ESAI). The firm said it now expects “continued downward pressure” on gas prices through 2002. It estimates that domestic production, Canadian imports and liquefied natural gas (LNG) will equal an increase in supply of 3.6% in 2001 and 4% in 2002.

Natural gas demand will rise with growth in electric generation, but gas supply appears to be growing at an even faster pace, according to Energy Security Analysis Inc.(ESAI). The firm said this week it now expects “continued downward pressure” on gas prices through 2002. It estimates that the expansion of supplies from domestic production, Canadian imports and liquefied natural gas (LNG) will equal to an increase of 3.6% in 2001 and 4% in 2002.

There was almost no consistency in price movements Wednesday,although a slight majority of the changes were downward. Rises andfalls mixed with each other in the Gulf Coast andMidcontinent/Midwest.

Although the sky appears to be the limit for the current gasmarket, it apparently hasn’t affected the long-term optimism of theEnergy Information Administration. EIA actually predicts priceswill begin to decline in 2002 and basically flatten out through2020. That will occur, EIA believes, despite a massive increase ingas consumption to nearly 35 Tcf by 2020.

U.S. land drillers and rig manufacturers will benefit the mostin the next year as the nation’s rig count continues to outpaceexpectations, according to a research report released Monday byRaymond James & Associates. And even though the seismicbusiness has recently lagged, it also holds excellent earningsprospects for the future, said the analysts.

The overall cash market was flat to slightly higher Monday, withlarger increases tending to occur in the Southwest basins,Rockies/Pacific Northwest and California border. But by far thehighest-flying price point was intra-Alberta, where a NOVA ruptureSaturday (see Transportation Notes) was keeping up to 1 Bcf/d offthe market. Gas that had been trading in the low C$1.50s Saturdaymorning prior to the rupture was up to the C$2.10 area Monday, aCalgary source said.