NYMEX

The July Nymex futures contract crept up another 2.9 cents tosettle Tuesday at $2.391, as hot weather and subsequent strong cashmarket prices continued to support the futures strip. July reacheda high of $2.41 on the day, which is just 2 cents shy of its nextresistance level. However, one source feels the spot month may havetrouble breaking that level in regular trading today since heexpects many traders to stay on the sidelines in anticipation ofthe latest AGA storage report, to be released this evening.

Tuesdays and Wednesdays have been quiet lately at the New YorkMercantile Exchange with traders, brokers, and marketers waitingcalmly in anticipation of the weekly AGA storage report. In fact,since the end of April, daily changes to the spot month contract onthose days have been small, averaging slightly more than 3 centswith no change greater than 8 cents. However, this is natural gasand just when you think you have things figured out, it throws youfor a loop. This week, July plummeted on Tuesday to the tune of11.1 cents only to rebound 18.5 cents on Wednesday. That left thespot month at $2.174 at the close of the regular trading sessionWednesday afternoon.

The July contract closed out the week on a positive note aslight short-covering and position squaring bolstered the market6.5-cents to settle at $2.035 on Friday. July was not the only bigwinner, with nearby August also coming to life. August was up 7.3cents bringing the 12-month strip to $2.329.

After posting losses in the Tuesday evening Access session, theJuly Nymex contract gapped lower on the open yesterday, thencontinued to falter closing at $2.106, down a nickel. The contractwas held within a tight 4 cent range between $2.095-135 whichalmost identically mirrored Henry Hub cash prices on the day.Estimated volume was 41,493

The July Nymex contract looked poised to build on gainsyesterday by opening strong then immediately testing resistance inthe $2.20-21 area. However, for the second day in a row resistanceheld, leading to profit taking that sent July spiraling down tosettle at $2.156, a 3.5-cent loss for the day.

The July Nymex contract started the week right where it left offlast Friday by probing 2.1 cents higher to settle at $2.191yesterday. After trading higher into the closing bell last Fridaythe market opened lower on Monday, briefly tested short-termsupport, then managed to retrace back up near overhead resistanceat $2.20-21. Estimated volume was a healthy 56,566 contracts.

Follow-through buying took hold of Nymex trading early, and ledto new session highs before the closing bell last Friday as Julygained 9.9 cents to settle at $2.17. July gapped higher on the openafter coming into the day with solid momentum following Thursday’smodest gains in both the regular and ACCESS trading session. Julyopened at 2.115 Friday, already 4.4 cents above Thursday’s settle.A warming trend for both the weekend and extending into the 6-10day forecast in the South, coupled with some technical momentumwere universally cited as reasons for the strength.

Anyone who thought that the meager 0.1 cent gain the June Nymexcontract turned in on Tuesday would lead to a boring expiration daywas dead wrong. June managed to spew out one more major pricedecline on Wednesday, as the contract went off the board down 7.8cents for the day to settle at $2.017.

The June Nymex contract caused quite a bit of excitement onFriday, as the spot month teased both the bears and the bulls. Juneraised the eyebrows of bearish traders when the contractmomentarily reached a low of $1.99, but strong short coveringkicked in at that point, enough to drive the spot month to itsfinal settlement price of $2.094.