NYMEX

Cash prices came out of the chute fast Monday morning as coldertemperatures, strong NYMEX prices and a bit of hype tricked mostmarkets into early gains. “A buyer blinked early this morning andsellers took control,” a Tulsa marketer said. The early strengthpushed prices to 5-8 cents above index levels in some cases.However, after the market caught its breath, sellers came out ofthe woodwork to send prices lower and late trades were back nearindex levels. Western prices followed the East’s early lead butresisted the major downturn.

The April Nymex contract fell 2.9 cents to $2.292 on Monday,following the spot month’s failed attempt to clear a majorresistance level. “April was in a two hurdle race today, but ittripped on the second hurdle,” a trader told GPI. “On the one hand,April was able to break out of the symmetrical triangle formationby moving above $2.34. However, April immediately fell back once itfilled in the chart gap at $2.355. There were quite a few standingsell orders at that price, so it’s no wonder the contract fellback,” he said.

The April Nymex contract gained 3.7 cents to settle Friday at$2.321, thanks to what one broker called strong fund buying.However, April may be hard pressed to add much more to that.According to the latest Commitments of Traders report,non-commercials extended their net long position by 7,649 contractsto 9,543 during the last two weeks. The broker estimates that 60%of those positions are in April, which would mean these speculatorswould have to wind out of approximately 5,700 April contractswithin the next four weeks. However, if April breaks out of itsrecent technical trading range within the next several days, it islikely funds will add to their overall long position, meaning moreselling pressure would mount on April and May as we approach theApril expiration, a source argued.

The April Nymex contract got off to a fast start Thursday byopening at $2.32 and quickly moving to $2.34. However, strongtechnical selling kicked in at that point, so much so that Aprilslid back to settle the day down 3.4 cents at $2.284.

The March Nymex contract turned in another heavily tradedsession on Tuesday, but once again, volatility was virtuallynon-existent. Although the spot month managed a 3.7 cent gain to$2.216, the contract was held to a relatively tight 5.5 centtrading band. Not even the expiration of options yesterday couldpersuade traders to push March out of its recent rigid tradinglimits.

The March Nymex futures contract fell another 1.9 cents to$2.198 Friday, as traders continued the falloff in prices theystarted on Thursday. “This was not a case of traders gunning forstops, where they try to push the contract under support hoping thecontract will fall even more. This was simply an extension ofThursday,” a broker said.

The March Nymex contract inched 3.2 cents higher to $2.270 onThursday, amid a session sources agreed was once again dominated bytechnicals. “This looks like a very strong trading range, sotoday’s result was to be expected,” a trader said. “March drifted afew cents toward the bottom of its range on Wednesday, so it makessense the contract would move higher today. Because the tradingrange is so tight right now, that is limiting how much March can goup,” he said.