Mixed

Cash market trading was mixed once again on Thursday, but most regions were showing more declines than gains as weather continued to moderate in major metropolitan centers. Traders were more concerned on the day with the “interesting bidweek schedule” for January, which spans two holidays.

Gains handily outweighed losses in mixed price movement Monday while an ice storm continued to rage through the central U.S. Transco’s Zone 6-New York City pool and Iroquois Zone 2 spiked by about $1.50 to as high as $14.00 and $13.75, respectively, as very cold and weather was expected to remain in place Tuesday across the northern half of the U.S. and Canada.

Mixed price movement continued Thursday, but this time gains outweighed losses as an eastern cold spell expanded into the South and had lows diving into the 30s or lower Friday in the Midwest and Northeast. Softness was most prevalent in the West, where available supply continued to overwhelm demand and transport capacity.

The natural gas futures market meandered within its recent trading range again Monday as traders continued to process the mixed signals of early season cold and record storage levels. The December contract traded between $7.740 and $8.070 on the day before retreating to close at $7.961, up 6.4 cents from Friday’s finish.

As Wednesday’s swing to mixed pricing that was mostly softer had hinted, the impending return of warmer weather in the East and the depressant effect of four straight losing sessions by December futures combined to bring cash prices down hard at nearly all locations Thursday. Only flat El Paso-San Juan numbers averted a total sweep of softer quotes.

Wednesday’s price movement was mixed but biased to the downside. Continued substantive heating load kept most points firmer in the Gulf Coast and Northeast, but a string of futures losses coupled with already generally mild weather in the West and the approach of warmer conditions in the Midcontinent/Midwest had numbers mostly falling in those regions.

Mixed price movement was repeated Wednesday, but this time the bulls were running instead of the bears. Some sizable heating load is starting to emerge as temperatures more seasonal for mid-October replace what had been a fairly mild (or sometimes hot) start to autumn so far. With a major outlet blockage being removed, Rockies prices responded with spikes a day after plunges to as low as 40 cents the day before.

Raymond James & Associates Inc. issued a mixed forecast on natural gas last week, predicting U.S. natural gas prices may rally toward the end of this year, but plentiful supplies and an overabundance of storage could lead to a “disaster” in 2008. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said the uptick in Rocky Mountain gas supplies and the limited export capacity will cause volatility until more pipes and storage faculties in the region are on line.

Mixed cash price movement continued Wednesday, but there were no gains outside the still-recovering Rockies other than on intrastate Midcontinent pipe OGT. Softness dominated the rest of the market despite producers starting to evacuate Gulf of Mexico facilities because of relatively light cooling load in most areas and the screen’s 8.5-cent decline Tuesday being followed up by a much larger loss Wednesday.