Looked

When natural gas prices were sky high a year ago, the “window looked wide open” for the long awaited Alaska natural gas pipe, which would carry supplies from the North Slope to the Lower 48, but realistically, “it’s never been a slam dunk,” said Ed Small, an analyst with Cambridge Energy Research Associates based in Canada. He also cautioned that producers will have to have the Alaskan government’s blessing on the chosen route, or it would be a “fatal flaw in the process.”

Natural gas futures gapped lower at the open and never looked back Monday as traders digested the latest private and governmental weather forecasts that suggest that the Eastern U.S. will be spared of any extended period of hot weather through at least the next couple of weeks. The July contract took the selling pressure squarely on the chin, dropping 29.6 cents to a new 11-month low at $3.446.

While the East looked around and, seeing nearly all appreciable weather load fading fast, decided to sit tight or retreat a bit price-wise Wednesday, most western points were soaring in a frenzy of buying. California and Rockies pipes saw spikes that often hit triple digits. Only flatness in the Pacific Northwest and at a couple of Permian Basin points, along with a downturn for intra-Alberta numbers, belied the overall western strength.

Although the cash market’s downslide looked like it wasflattening out Wednesday in most instances except for California,sources tended to regard it as merely a resting place before moresoftness sets in. A majority of points ranged from moderatelysofter to a few cents higher, with the largest gains being realizedin the chilling Northeast. The Southern California border plungedand the PG&E citygate fell by about 40 cents.

The price picture looked pretty bleak for bullish types earlierthis week, but they were taking heart Wednesday from a cashrebound, further strength in futures and signs that winter weatherlikely will return for a new siege, just as the groundhog predictedlast Friday. Most eastern gains tended to be in the teens, but mostwestern points rose by 20 cents or more, with the PG&E citygate(up almost $1.50) as the leader of the pack.

After a lower open, natural gas futures clawed higher Tuesday astraders looked past falling physical prices to side withconstructive long-lead weather outlooks and bullish storageexpectations. The February contract gained 13 cents to close at$9.819, but the real news of the day was buying in the out-months,which enabled the 12-month strip to advance 18.1 cents to close at$6.63.

“It looked like the screen and cash were in a race to see whichone could go downhill farthest and fastest.” A marketer’s commentaccurately summed up a day that more than ever indicated the bloomis quickly coming off this year’s price rose. Double-digit declinesdominated Thursday, with most exceeding 30 cents, and many GulfCoast and Midcontinent pipes experienced sub-$5 territory for thefirst time in months.

Mitchell Energy & Development Corp.’s view of the future looked so good from the auction block, the company decided to step down and aggressively grow its gas production. Mitchell had put out the ‘for sale’ sign in early October (see NGI Oct. 11).

After a tumultuous morning rally and retreat, natural gas pickedits way higher yesterday as traders looked past a mixed technicalpicture to focus instead on the possible reemergence of seasonaltemperatures by week’s end. The April contract advanced 2.5 centsto $2.85. However, the real stories were in the out months, whichgalloped higher to post gains of 3.4 cents and 3.5 cents for thesummer and 12-month strips respectively.