“It looked like the screen and cash were in a race to see whichone could go downhill farthest and fastest.” A marketer’s commentaccurately summed up a day that more than ever indicated the bloomis quickly coming off this year’s price rose. Double-digit declinesdominated Thursday, with most exceeding 30 cents, and many GulfCoast and Midcontinent pipes experienced sub-$5 territory for thefirst time in months.

Based on the screen’s performance for Thursday only (down nearly28 cents), cash won the race. But if you combine the futures dropsof Wednesday afternoon and Thursday, the screen was the clearsoftness leader.

In addition to heavily negative Nymex influence, the cash marketwas still having to contend with comfortable (that is, bearish)temperatures in all regions. “There is almost no physical demandanywhere, so you know a lot of gas must be going into storage, andthat means a big AGA injection figure next week,” noted a Northeasttrader.

Chances for a rebound appear remote. Near-term, today’s marketfaces the normal weekend demand slump. And a little further out,the latest six- to 10-day forecast from the National WeatherServices draws a line neatly bisecting the U.S. into eastern andwestern halves. The East should have above-normal temperatures nextweek, NWS said, while they will be normal to below normal in theWest.

The Northeast saw most of Thursday biggest drops approaching 40cents, while most of the falls of less than 30 cents occurred inthe Rockies. As it often does, the intra-Alberta market closelyfollowed screen movement and was highly volatile, a Calgary-basedproducer said. It started a little more than a dime lower aroundC$6.80 and kept falling to a low of around $6.30 before seeing amild late bounce of about a nickel, he said.

Among the three major California points, the PG&E citygatetook it on the price chin hardest due to a customer-specific OFO bythe utility (see Transportation Notes). A much smaller drop at theSouthern California border had the border commanding a premium overthe citygate again, an unusual price relationship that dominatedmuch of August and September business but which seemed to have beencorrected since the two points traded at near-parity in the low$5.70s Oct. 10.

A marketer who was trading the Southern California border nearlya dollar above San Juan-Blanco said San Juan prices appear poisedfor “going to hell in a handbasket.” He expects only a moderateborder decline today but a large basin drop.

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