Horns

Analysts at Raymond James & Associates aren’t quite ready to pack up their bull horns and nose rings, but they had to concede Monday that the domestic gas supply picture is improving. To them that simply means the domestic gas production decline isn’t as steep as they previously projected.

After checking lower in the moments following the 10:30 a.m. ET release of fresh storage data (70 Bcf injection), the natural gas futures market worked its way higher late Thursday morning and afternoon as buyers sided with the seasonal tendency for prices to climb during the month of September. As it turns out, that buying was enough to withstand two distinct selling surges Thursday morning as technical traders attempted to induce a move below key support levels at $4.55 and $4.44. October finished the session at $4.81, up 11.6 cents for the session.

Locking horns yet again with Naperville, IL-based Nicor Gas, the Citizens Utility Board (CUB) — a utility watchdog group — last week urged state regulators to scrap a controversial “alternative regulation” plan that has allowed the natural gas distributor to charge customers at least $27 million more than they would have paid under standard ratemaking rules.

Stemming a two-week, $1.25 price slide, natural gas futures rebounded last week amid neutral to bullish fundamental factors and increasing constructive technical clues. After carving out a fresh 19-month prompt month low by trading down to $2.255 earlier in the week, the October contract finished strongly at $2.50 Friday, up 6 cents for the session and just beneath its $2.53 high for the week.

With basically no positive news on which to rear their horns, bulls were once again on the defensive Friday as a lower open forced them to either liquidate long positions or pony up additional reserves for margin calls. Naturally, some chose the former, and that selling pressure translated immediately to lower prices, as futures probed to fresh 16-month lows for the third straight session. September was the hardest hit of any of the months in the gas pit, tumbling 10.5 cents to close at $2.706.

Fresh off their success in not allowing natural gas to dip below major support on Monday, natural gas bulls reared their horns yesterday as they prodded prices to a constructive opening print. However, further advances were hard to come by, leaving the market to check mostly sideways for the rest of the session. The August contract closed at $3.165, a hike of 9.7 cents on the day.

Whether it was too much holiday turkey or possibly just a postY2K letdown, the natural gas futures market began the year insomewhat of a funk last week as traders showed an unwillingness topush prices very much on either side of unchanged.

Taking a cue from stronger cash market prices, the futuresmarket continued higher yesterday as buyers pressed prices throughseveral key resistance levels. After gapping higher on the open at$2.55, the January contract moved mostly sideways before checkinglower to fill in the gap late in the morning. However, from thereit was all gravy for bulls, who bid the prompt month up 7.6 centsto its $2.585 close.

Interstate gas pipelines and their customers, which routinelylock horns at FERC, have found some common ground — neitherparticularly is enamored with the new policy statement thatencourages incremental pricing of pipeline construction. Somebelieve the Commission should go back to the drawing board andstart over on a new policy statement, while others have called fora return to the previous policy favoring rolled-in pricing.