futures

Judging from the huge dip in futures prices yesterday, themarket apparently didn’t get wind of a new, more bullish hurricaneseason forecast by renowned hurricane prognosticator Dr. WilliamGray and his team of soothsayers at Colorado State University.

The cash market was very much a mixed bag Monday, with largerebounds in the West arrayed against small price movements up anddown (but more down than up) in the East. However, because thegreat majority of the screen’s dazzling display of strengthoccurred following the close of cash business, sources found reasonto expect a bullish market in physical gas today even without muchweather-related support.

It is often said that markets will fall twice as fast as theyrise and that was never more true than yesterday in the natural gaspit at Nymex. After climbing steadily over the past week to the$4.555 level Wednesday, the market was flushed lower yesterday amida torrent of profit-taking that in turn, triggered a wave ofsell-stop loss orders. Bargain hunting was seen late to stem theprice erosion, but the damage was already done.

With June natural gas futures soaring to a dizzying high of$4.50 last week, projections by Lehman Brothers and Salomon SmithBarney that spot prices will average $3.50 the rest of the yearseem a bit too conservative. A few weeks ago, those price levelswould have seemed astronomical.

Led by heavy buying interest in winter months, natural gasfutures continued to defy gravity yesterday as traders bid themarket up for the seventh straight session. June finished up 5.2cents at $3.448, but the real story was the Nov-Mar. strip, whichnotched an impressive 7.3-cent gain to close at $3.613.

What goes up, must come down,” was one trader’s description ofyesterday’s late sell-off in the natural gas pit at Nymex. However,a more appropriate expression might have been “what can’t keepgoing up, must come down,” because after pressing through stubbornresistance at $3.20 Monday morning, the June contract hadlanguished on either side of $3.20 for two days, unable to attractmuch in the way of follow-through buying. That range-bound tradingcame to an abrupt end Wednesday when fresh storage data wasreleased. The June contact finished down 9.1 cents at $3.126.

Feeding off gains notched Friday morning, natural gas futurespushed to fresh highs yesterday as funds and locals added to theirlong holdings. With that, the June contract has advanced 16 centsin the last two trading sessions to move past and settle above itsprevious life-of-contract high with a $3.216 closing price Monday.Estimated volume was light at 51,288 contracts despite theimpressive price move. An average trading day would see roughly20,000 more in estimated volume.

Completing its quietest last-three-day settlement period inrecent history, natural gas futures moved higher early yesterdayonly to drift lower throughout the afternoon as traders lightenedtheir long exposures. The expiring May contract finished 2.1 centslower at $3.089, but for many the real story was the rest of thesummer strip which slipped an average of 2.9 cents. Estimatedvolume was light for an expiration day with only 90,843 contractschanging hands.

One look at Nymex natural gas futures prices will tell yousupply is a little scarcer than consumers probably would like, andfirst quarter financial reports are confirming that production isdown from last year. Producer earnings soared during the firstquarter as a result of higher oil and gas prices, and lowerdomestic gas production should take some of the blame for the bullmarket.