Fundamental

Armed with bearish technical data and fundamental news, traders at the New York Mercantile Exchange wasted little time yesterday as they pressured natural gas futures back below the psychologically important $3.00 mark. Selling was seen from the outset Monday, as traders initiated the daily session with a whopping 14-cent, gap-lower open on the daily chart. The December contract never recovered, sifting lower through the morning only to move sideways during the afternoon. The prompt month closed at $2.922, down 32.6 cents for the day.

In a surprising show of strength considering the price-bearish fundamental picture, natural gas futures soared to new two-month highs again Monday as fund traders continued their accumulation of long positions. A gap higher open set the stage early yesterday and bears never fully regained control, watching helplessly as November traded to $3.30, its highest level since Aug. 22. The prompt month closed just off that level, up 16.1 cents for the session and 95 cents for the month at $3.202. Estimated volume was typical for an expiration day, with 100,102 contracts changing hands.

With fundamental influences remaining weak and a falling screen to boot, it was hardly surprising Monday when cash prices failed for the most part to rebound from their weekend softness. Movement ranged from essentially flat to down a dime or so at nearly all eastern, California and Permian Basin points. The weakness was more pronounced in the Rockies/Pacific Northwest and San Juan Basin markets, where declines ranged from about a dime to 20 cents.

With little in the way of fresh fundamental or technical impetus, natural gas futures drifted sideways and lower Tuesday as traders elected to wait for a clearer supply-demand picture to develop. The September contract remained within an extremely tight 5.5-cent range, well beneath Monday’s gap lower open, but safely above support in the $3.03-10 area. At the closing bell, September was 1.7 cents weaker at $3.17.

With little on either the technical or fundamental news front, natural gas futures shuffled sideways and lower yesterday, as traders weighed moderating temperatures against the potential for a bullish storage report Wednesday. At the closing bell the September contract was 4.1 cents lower at $2.999. The 12-month strip suffered only a minor setback, down 1.6-cents at $3.443.

In a session notably void of fresh fundamental or technical news, natural gas futures moved sideways yesterday as many traders opted to wait until the beginning of the three-day settlement period and the release of storage figures today before placing their orders. At $2.97 the August contract finished 0.8 cents lower on the day and just about in the middle of its 3-day $2.915-$3.01, trading range. Volume was relatively weak with just 61,764 contracts changing hands.

With little in the way of fresh fundamental news, natural gas futures moved sideways Friday, as traders held the market to an extremely tight, six-cent trading range. A modest downtick at the closing bell was enough to pressure prices below unchanged on the day. The July contract finished at $3.742, down a half-cent for the session and 23.7 cents lower for the week. Since becoming the prompt month nearly four weeks ago, July is down 6.8 cents after trading as low as $3.67 (May 30) and as high as $4.44 (June 12).

Bulls saved their best for last on Friday. After being held to an extremely-tight, 7-cent trading range throughout much of the session, natural gas futures shot high during the closing 75 minutes of trading in concert with a spike in the nearby crude oil pit. At the closing bell, June natural gas futures were up a modest 4.3 cents or 1% at $4.291. Comparatively, June crude was up an even dollar or a little over 3% at $29.91.

With little in the way of fresh fundamental or technical developments, natural gas futures slid sideways and lower for the second day in a row Tuesday, as traders elected to remain mostly on the sidelines ahead of fresh storage data to be released this afternoon. The May contract closed 4.7 cents lower at $5.078.