Fueled by forecasts calling for cooler temperatures throughoutmuch of the country later this week, natural gas futures probedhigher in two distinct buying surges yesterday. The first push cameshortly after Monday’s lower open, when traders bid the Januarycontract to $2.50. However, those gains were erased almost entirelyby early afternoon, intra-day profit taking. But the bulls were notfinished, and after digging in their heels at $2.47, weresuccessful in pushing prices through $2.50 late in the session. TheJanuary contract finished up 6.3 at $2.509.
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Futures Up on Technical and Fundamental Considerations
Buoyed by strong demand for physical supplies and aggressivebuying under last week’s price chart gap, the natural gas futuresmarket continued to whittle away at last week’s collapse. Theremaining three months of the millennium received almost equalbuying interest Tuesday, with October, November and Decemberadvancing 11.6, 11.9, and 11.6 cents respectively. Estimated volumewas hefty, with 81,210 contracts changing hands.
Increases Attributed Mostly to Technical Reasons
With little in the way of fundamental support to speak of, cashprices still managed gains between a nickel and a dime Tuesday atalmost every trading point. “It’s got to be technical,” said autility buyer. The tone was set by the screen opening around $1.80,a dime higher than Monday’s opening, even though the April contracteventually ended the day with a small net loss, he said. Anothersource thought it was a case of cash starting to converge with thescreen.
Cash Uses Screen as Springboard for Small Increases
Fundamental weather demand didn’t change much, so it must havebeen the impetus from a rising Henry Hub futures contract thatallowed cash prices to post widespread small gains Tuesday, sourcessaid. Few of the increases were much more than 1-3 cents except forSumas, where prices rose as a force majeure remained in effect atWestcoast’s McMahon Processing Plant (see Transportation Notes).
Even Without Weather Support, Cash Slightly Higher
Despite a dearth of fundamental support, the cash market sawmostly minor gains Wednesday. The firmness came as a surprise tomany who couldn’t understand where the demand was coming from. Aminuscule gain in Henry Hub futures didn’t give cash much impetusat all, one trader said.
Futures Plunge Despite Cash Rally
Bearish fundamental factors once again took over at the New YorkMercantile Exchange Tuesday, sending the natural gas futures marketspiraling lower and nearly erasing gains registered over the priorthree trading sessions. Even cash prices, which continued to spikedramatically higher yesterday, did not influence the futuresmarket. After January opened below key support, the market neverlooked back as prices fell 18.8 cents to $1.913 at the closeTuesday. And just like that, the futures-cash basis has shrunk froma whopping 97 cents to a tight 14 cents over the past two days.
Screen Lifts Bidweek Slightly; November a Bit Down
Essentially nothing had changed in the fundamental demandpicture Tuesday, and late-November cash prices responded with verylittle change themselves. Minuscule softness dominated at mostpoints, and the few declines rarely exceeded a nickel. Sources indiverse regions continued to report unseasonably mild temperatures.
Cash Market Succumbs to Fundamental Weakness
Cash prices finally turned downward Thursday, a day later thanseveral sources had expected. Even with the futures screen staginga modest rally, cash traders were unable to ignore the previous twodays’ weakness in the Nymex pit, the continuing lack of weatherfundamentals and yet another bearish storage report that once againemphasised how close injection demand is getting to disappearing.
San Juan Leads West Plunge; Flat Otherwise
A continuation of intense heat in the Eastern U.S. lentfundamental support to gas markets in the region Friday, keepingcash prices flat to slightly higher or lower for the weekend.Again, though, it was a case of “not so” in the San Juan Basin,Rockies and California. Although east-of-California markets sawhigh temperatures approaching or surpassing 100 degrees, a dearthof demand from the Golden State and the unrealized threat of an OFOon El Paso caused gas to back up into the San Juan-Blanco pool,resulting in a steep dive of nearly 30 cents. One source, whopicked up an early Blanco package at $1.78, about a dime down fromThursday, paid only $1.59 near the end of trading.