Forecasting

The fact that major Wall Street investment companies are forecasting a drastic drop-off in oil and natural gas prices in the second half of the decade, a drop-off that is not reflected in NYMEX futures, could create a stock market buying opportunity, Houston analyst John Olson told GasMart attendees in Denver Wednesday.

Given continued “freakishly” mild winter weather, gas prices are likely to dip to $7 by March, according to energy consultant Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith & Associates. Smith is forecasting a season ending gas storage level of 1,570 Bcf, compared to 10-year norms of about 890 Bcf, and a March 31 Henry Hub gas price of about $6.75-7.50.

Many energy industry insiders currently are forecasting that gas and oil prices will wind up being higher than current Wall Street estimates in 2005, analysts at Raymond James & Associates said based on an informal survey of energy companies at the recent North American Prospects Expo in Houston.

Many energy industry insiders currently are forecasting that gas and oil prices will wind up being higher than current Wall Street estimates in 2005, said analysts at Raymond James & Associates. Based on an informal survey of energy companies at the recent North American Prospects Expo in Houston, analysts at Raymond James said industry representatives believe that analysts currently are underestimating the 2005 performance of exploration and production companies.

Lehman Brothers is forecasting that only three new liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminals, out of a total of about 40 proposed terminals, will be built in North America by 2010 for a total of seven operating terminals, which will represent about 10% of U.S. gas supply compared to about 2.5% in 2003.

Dominion Exploration & Production is forecasting some significant daily gas production totals from the new Devils Tower field, which started flowing this week. The field, which is located about 140 miles southeast of New Orleans on Mississippi Canyon block 773 in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, is expected to produce a total of 60 Bcfe of gas and oil net to Dominion over the next 12 months. Pioneer Natural holds a 25% stake in the project.

UK-based Douglas-Westwood is forecasting in a new report that global natural gas production will grow from its current level of 2,600 Bcm/year (91.8 Tcf) to 4,755 Bcm/year (167.9 Tcf) by 2025, averaging an annual increase of 2.75%.

UK-based Douglas-Westwood is forecasting in a new report that global natural gas production will grow from its current level of 2,600 Bcm/year (91.8 Tcf) to 4,755 Bcm/year (167.9 Tcf) by 2025, averaging an annual increase of 2.75%.

Two Texas-based independents, Ultra Petroleum and Denbury Resources Inc., are forecasting continued success from their North American-based exploration and production programs following strong gains this year.