Forecasting

Fidelity Exploration & Production Co., the exploration arm of MDU Resources Group Inc., is forecasting a double-digit gain in production with the purchase of some natural gas properties in an emerging area of East Texas for $235 million, or $2.42/Mcf of proved reserves.

Fidelity Exploration & Production Co., the exploration arm of MDU Resources Group Inc., is forecasting a double-digit gain in production with the purchase of some natural gas properties in an emerging area of East Texas for $235 million, or $2.42/Mcf of proved reserves.

Sticking to its earlier predictions, which are in line with a number of other forecasting firms, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Thursday it still sees above-average temperatures this winter for most of the United States.

With the energy industry glued to storm forecasting models in the attempt to predict Hurricane Dean’s path early this week, the natural gas futures market had upward pressure on it throughout Friday’s session. After trading above $7 three times during the week, the September contract was actually able to settle above the psychologically important line for the first time on Friday at $7.010, up 13.5 cents on the day and 19 cents higher than the previous Friday’s close.

Natural gas futures have done a “far better job” of predicting gas prices than crude oil futures have of forecasting oil prices, a noted energy economist said last Wednesday.

Natural gas futures have done a “far better job” of predicting gas prices than oil futures have done in forecasting oil prices, a noted energy economist said Wednesday.

Another energy analyst is forecasting a decline in Canadian natural gas exports to the United States, mirroring predictions by Canadian experts and the National Energy Board (NEB). According to Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. Inc., Canadian gas exports are expected to decline this year by 4% (0.4 Bcf/d), following a similar decline in 2006.

With mother nature largely in control of the natural gas market, forecasting prices can be a real headache. Winter Henry Hub prices (November-March), for example, could average anywhere from $4 to $11.50, depending on whether temperatures are 13% warmer than normal or 12% colder than normal this winter, Energy and Environmental Analysis Inc. (EEA) said in its latest Monthly Gas Update. EEA’s best guess is an $8.48 winter average at the hub.

With mother nature largely in control of the natural gas market, forecasting prices can be a real headache. Winter Henry Hub prices (November-March), for example, could average anywhere from $4 to $11.50, depending on whether temperatures are 13% warmer than normal or 12% colder than normal this winter, Energy and Environmental Analysis Inc. (EEA) said in its latest Monthly Gas Update. EEA’s best guess is an $8.48 winter average at the hub.