Forecasters

While many gas market forecasters are betting gas prices will match the current Nymex strip for the rest of the year, which is higher than $5.70/MMBtu, consultants at Wood Mackenzie believe prices are poised to fall due to falling competitive fuel prices and resulting gas demand losses. The Wood Mackenzie consultants also are expecting a gas production recovery in the third quarter.

Forecasters finally are saying that Old Man Winter soon may be forced into retirement, and that news brought gas futures bears out of their caves on Monday. April futures staged a sharp reversal, opening 34.2 cents lower Monday morning and ending the day at $6.515, down 47.8 cents.

The weather forecasters say Lilli, a category 4 when it went through the Gulf of Mexico production area, could rival Andrew, a category 5 hurricane in 1992 that devastated a wide swath of Florida before cutting across the Gulf, toppling 34 oil and gas platforms, leaving 28 leaning, and causing over a billion dollars in damage, not counting the loss of production revenue (see NGI’s storm chronicle — located under special reports on intelligencepress.com).

The weather forecasters say Lilli, a category 4 as of Wednesday evening, could rival Andrew, a category 5 hurricane in 1992 that devastated a wide swath of Florida before cutting across the Gulf of Mexico, toppling 34 oil and gas platforms, leaving 28 leaning, and causing over a billion dollars in damage, not counting the loss of production revenue (see NGI’s storm chronicle — located under special reports on intelligencepress.com).

Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that a weak or moderate El Nino event (warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific) is likely to develop during the next six-to-nine months, but it should have much less impact than that of the strong 1997-98 El Nino. El Nino events typically hinder hurricane activity, according to NOAA.

Colder temperatures that moved into the central and eastern United States over the extended holiday weekend should stick around for another two weeks, according to Salomon Smith Barney meteorologist Jon Davis.

Hotter than normal temperatures should prevail through the heavily populated Northeast for the rest of the summer and into the fall, according to an updated weather forecast released last week by Weather Services International (WSI). The latest forecast backs up one issued in April by Salomon Smith Barney meteorologist Jon Davis, who predicts a chance of heat waves in the Northeast and on the West Coast.

Hotter than normal temperatures should prevail through the heavily populated Northeast for the rest of the summer and into the fall, according to an updated weather forecast released Wednesday by Weather Services International (WSI). The latest forecast backs up one issued in April by Salomon Smith Barney’s meteorologist which predicts a chance of heat waves in the Northeast and on the West Coast.

Forecasters expecting the long standing storage deficit compared to last year’s levels to be wiped out on Wednesday got their wish. With the winter gas futures months holding attractive premiums for storage arbitrage and gas demand apparently reduced because of high winter prices, an unprecedented series of weekly storage injections over the past five weeks has led to a year-to-year surplus for the first time since January 2000.