Forecast

Coming in above its estimate for oil and gas production last year, Pioneer Natural Resources also reported Monday that it scored a new record for net income, with $410.6 million ($3.46/share), compared with $26.7 million (23 cents) in 2002.

After nailing two weeks ago in his forecast that New England would receive a large arctic push last week (see Daily GPI, Jan. 7), Joe Bastardi, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather.com, said Tuesday that the region is not out of the woods yet.

Royal Dutch/Shell Group’s share price tumbled Friday after announcing it would recategorize nearly 20% of its proved hydrocarbon reserves — about 3.9 billion boe. More than 90% of the total comes from a reduction in proved undeveloped reserves; the remainder in proved developed. The changes would trim proved reserves to 15.6 billion boe from the 19.5 billion boe the major estimated in December 2002.

Unlike Lehman Brothers, which dropped its natural gas pricing forecast into 2004 (see related story), Standard & Poor’s (S&P) analysts believe that North American natural gas prices may spike this winter if the exploration and production (E&P) industry does not increase its drilling activity.

Citing “the forecast potential for Tropical Storm Claudette to enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend,” Texas Eastern said Wednesday the previously posted shutdown of its Main Pass System’s Line 40-B (see Daily GPI, July 9) has been postponed until July 16; it previously had been set to begin this Sunday. The duration and course of Claudette will dictate whether the schedule gets shifted again, the pipeline said.

A new summer weather forecast by Weather Services International (WSI) could be bearish for gas prices because of cooler than normal temperatures expected all along the East Coast and throughout California from June through August, which certainly will help to minimize heavy cooling loads and allow greater gas storage injections. However, hotter than normal temperatures in July and particularly in August in the Midcontinent states and Texas will drive up gas demand, helping to offset weaker market conditions elsewhere.

A new summer weather forecast by Weather Services International (WSI) could be bearish for gas prices because of cooler than normal temperatures expected all along the East Coast and throughout California from June through August, which certainly will help to minimize heavy cooling loads and allow greater gas storage injections. However, hotter than normal temperatures in July and particularly in August in the Midcontinent states and Texas will drive up gas demand, helping to offset weaker market conditions elsewhere.

The United States “has probably peaked in gas supply,” Matthew R. Simmons of Houston-based Simmons & Co. International warned industry and government representatives last week.

The stocks of exploration and production (E&P) companies are set to appreciate 25% to 35% in the next 12 months, making it time for investors to buy, according to Raymond James Energy’s latest Stat of the Week.