Falling

Falling cash prices at nearly all points Thursday reflected the fact that the latest blast of cold weather is starting to wane, although forecasts of Friday lows around freezing were still common in northern market areas and extended as far south as Atlanta.

Prices kept falling at a majority of points Thursday as traders saw moderating weather starting in several areas Friday through the weekend and storage use continued to keep a lid on new spot gas purchases. The previous day’s 4.9-cent drop by February futures was an additional, albeit minor, bearish influence.

Soaring citygate numbers in the Northeast, where a major Nor’easter was forecast to develop during the weekend, ran against the grain of falling prices everywhere else Friday. Weather moderation was expected to begin in some areas early this week, and a prior-day 21.5-cent decline by January futures along with the decline of industrial load that occurs during a weekend contributed further negative guidance for Friday’s cash market.

With falling temperature trends in key northern market areas being just a preview of colder weather to come, quotes rose at most points Tuesday. The roller-coaster ride in the Rockies continued as the regional market made its third gigantic reversal of price direction in as many trading days, seeing triple-digit increases at all points except Cheyenne Hub.

With the expectation of falling gas prices and closer alignment of the Nymex strip with the spot market, Raymond James & Associates Inc. — which last week cut its 2008 gas price forecast to $7/Mcf from $10/Mcf (see Daily GPI, Sept. 18) — recommends that investors pursue an oil-focused strategy.

Those searching the skies for storm-driven relief for falling natural gas prices should lower their sights and take into account the extensive earthquake damage to a major Japanese nuclear power plant recently. That’s just what FBR Research is doing in predicting Japan’s increased demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) to fill its 8,200 MW power gap could cut into supplies for the U.S. market, leading to tightening the domestic natural gas market.

Those searching the skies for storm-driven relief for falling natural gas prices should lower their sights and take into account the extensive earthquake damage to a major Japanese nuclear power plant recently. That’s just what FBR Research is doing in predicting Japan’s increased demand for LNG to fill its 8,200 MW power gap could cut into supplies for the U.S. market, leading to tightening the domestic natural gas market.

More efficient development plans, speedier drilling completions and falling service costs helped some key North American independents build their natural gas reserves in 2Q2007 including EnCana Corp., XTO Energy Corp., Range Resources and Newfield Exploration Co., which all delivered impressive gas volume results last week.

More efficient development plans, speedier drilling completions and falling service costs pushed EnCana Corp.’s natural gas production to strong gains in 2Q2007, with output in six of its nine North American gas resource plays showing double-digit growth led by the Deep Bossier at 49%, Cutbank Ridge 31%, and the Jonah Field 16%.