Fall

While it remains to be seen whether winter will show up thisyear, gas customer choice programs are very much with the industryright now. Programs in Maryland, Michigan and Washington, DC, areunder way. On the electric side of customer choice, two pilots havejust been kicked off in Texas.

Natural gas futures took a Wylie Coyote-like free-fall yesterdayafter a bearish conspiracy of weather and technicals gave traderslittle choice but to liquidate long positions. After notching a newtwo-month high Wednesday afternoon, the December contract openedlower at $3.18 and never looked back, plummeting 25.8 cents tofinish at $2.965. January fared little better, tumbling 23.6 centsto $2.994.

For a while Thursday it looked like August prices would keeprunning higher based on a strong screen, continued heavy powergeneration load and Wednesday afternoon’s super-bullish storagereport. However, the uptrend crested and began subsiding a bit whena late “meltdown” occurred in September futures, sources said.

Southern Company Energy Marketing (SCEM), a joint venture ofSouthern Co. and Vastar Resources, said its second quarterelectricity sales jumped 21% to 48.2 million MWh from last year’ssecond quarter. Natural gas sales, however declined by 8% to 4.3Bcf/d.

California energy regulators last week identified 10 items forpotential natural gas industry restructuring, most of which dealwith wholesale or large customer operations. State regulators alsoencouraged utilities and large customers to cease their bickeringand come up with a broad-based settlement on gas unbundling.

Pipeline import capacity in the Northeast sub-region could fallshy of natural gas demand by more than 5 Bcf/d by 2010 if nosignificant capacity additions are constructed during the period,according to a new study by the Edison Electric Institute (EEI)that was released last week. The shortfall is predicatedon existingimport capacity in the sub-region remaining fairly constant at 12.4Bcf/d over the next decade, while the daily winter gas demand forthe area expands to about 17.5 Bcf/d.

After watching the market free-fall 7.1 cents to kick off theweek, bulls dug in their heels Tuesday at Nymex. While they weren’table to recoup much of Monday’s declines, they did prevent anyfurther losses. As a result, the futures market was stagnantyesterday, with the July contract limited to an extremely tight3-cent trading range before settling up 0.1 at $2.238.

Avista Corp. has warned preliminary estimates indicate secondquarter earnings per share will fall below securities analysts’current consensus second quarter estimate of $0.33 per share due tolosses in April and May within Avista Energy, its national energymarketing and trading. First quarter earnings in 1998 were $0.27per common share. The prospects for a disappointing second quarterfollow on first quarter earnings of $0.34 per diluted share, wellbelow the $0.56 per share in first quarter 1998.

“The Three Stooges didn’t fall as fast or as hard,” one traderremarked, as the usual weekend demand crunch, a bearish 6- to10-day forecast and Thursday’s futures market plunge were cited asreasons for the nearly universal drops of over a nickel. New YorkCitygate prices were among the hardest hit Friday, as Monday’shighpoint of $2.75 has given way to the mid $2.40s at the week’sclose.