Expected

Like many other industrial operators before it, Duke EnergyServices has found that operating along California’s famouscoastline can be a rocky proposition. Duke has been forced to pullback and reconfigure plans for its Morro Bay power plant along thecentral coast to accommodate local city concerns and is makingpromises to increase the city’s coffers by up to 30% through theplant remodel.

Like many other industrial operators before it, Duke EnergyServices has found that operating along California’s famouscoastline can be a rocky proposition. Duke has been forced to pullback and reconfigured plans for its Morro Bay power plant along thecentral coast to accommodate local city concerns and is makingpromises to increase the city’s coffers by up to 30% through theplant remodel.

Northern Natural Gas said Friday an outage of the Mustang Island757/762 platform offshore Texas, which it operates, was now expectedto extend through the middle of this week; previously it hadanticipated the outage would end Friday night (see Daily GPI, Jan. 5). The associated force majeure isaffecting deliveries into Florida Gas Transmission and Transco.

The cash market pulled out of its early-2000 slide at leastbriefly with a generally flat to slightly higher price performanceWednesday. However, sources found little but bearish indicators forthe near future.

This week’s bull market did come to an end Thursday as generallyexpected, but there was only a slight amount of price retrenchmentprimarily because of a show of strength by January futures. Eventhough cash traders were starting to discount the most recent coldweather forecasts, people in the Nymex pit apparently were stillgiving them credence. Most points were flat to 2-3 cents down, withseveral scattered ones achieving small gains. Only a few pointsfell by as much as a nickel or so.

Southern California Gas is expected to file with stateregulators a draft interim settlement this week that has backingfrom most of the major end users on its system, but California’sslow-moving gas industry restructuring process still has weeks andseveral alternate proposals to work through before there ismeasurable progress.

For a lower-demand weekend period preceded by a falling screenand expected to continue the unseasonably warm weather pattern thatdominated nearly all of November, there was surprising firmness inmost of the cash market Friday. Except for further Northeastcitygate declines, essentially flat quotes prevailed elsewhere. Onetrader suggested the moderate gain in futures Thursday may haveprovided a modicum of psychological support for cash traders Fridaymorning.

As had been expected, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)yesterday approved the $81 billion combination of Exxon and Mobil.The companies said they have accepted the terms of the FTC consentorder.

Producer investment in Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB)natural gas is expected to grow from the $8 billion spent in 1998to just under $9 billion by 2001, which should add up to about a 6%hike or 3.1 Bcf/d in production and 3.4 Bcf/d in maximum peak daydeliverability over the 1998 to 2001 period, according to a surveyby the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI). The report notes”the WCSB is moving into a period of tighter supply/demandbalances,” in which lower than estimated spending could result insupply shortfalls, while higher spending could create a surplus.The group’s “1999 Canadian Natural Gas Producer Survey &Deliverability Outlook” sees export capacity from the basinpossibly exceeding market demand in the short-term. “For year 2001CERI’s required production estimate equates to an 89% averageannual load factor on ex-basin capacity, notably lower than the95-100% factors experienced since the mid-1990s.”