Entering

Despite chances of Hurricane Isabel entering the Gulf of Mexico continuing to fall, most points ranged from flat to as much as a dime or so higher Monday. The market was spotted with small losses here and there, but the only sizeable one was a dime-plus decline in San Juan Basin.

Even with much larger natural gas volumes being produced in the Rockies, Kern River Gas Transmission’s newly expanded system is finding continuing barriers to getting its full complement of supplies into California, a Kern River executive told a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission workshop in Denver Wednesday. Up to 300 MMcf/d of Rockies gas is not getting through, according to Kern.

Even with much larger natural gas volumes being produced in the Rockies, Kern River Gas Transmission’s newly expanded system is finding continuing barriers to getting its full complement of supplies into California, a Kern River executive told a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission workshop in Denver Wednesday. Up to 300 MMcf/d of Rockies gas is not getting through, according to Kern.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is attempting to post warning signs to help prevent the gas industry from entering what might be considered the Bermuda Triangle of weekly gas storage levels. Ever since the EIA took over the weekly storage survey from the American Gas Association (AGA) in May, the industry has been lost in a sea of revisions, struggling to find its way through weekly changes that have strayed so far from the historical norm.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is attempting to post warning signs to help prevent the gas industry from entering what might be considered the Bermuda Triangle of weekly gas storage levels. There could be changes in EIA’s revisions policy, including using more months of actual data from its monthly national storage survey to come up with a better estimation ratio (see EIA’s recent request for comments in the Federal Register on July 11).

In an effort to bring greater certainty to utilities and power suppliers entering into wholesale power contracts, while at the same time hopefully slashing the amount of litigation that has arisen from those contracts, FERC last Wednesday issued a proposed policy statement that would set a standard of review that must be met in order to justify proposed changes to market-based rate contracts for wholesale sales of electric energy by utilities.

With most markets either in or entering a thawing-out phase, a price retreat from the worst siege of weather in the overall mild winter of 2001/02 was in order Tuesday. Declines between about a nickel and a little more than a dime were most common. The biggest ones came at the points that had been soaring the day before: Northeast and Florida citygates. A minor OFO kept California numbers mostly flat.

Due to a confluence of events, including ample natural gas storage supplies and the nation entering a recession, Ronald Barone of UBS Warburg said it should “come as no surprise” that the company has decided to lower its 2001 and 2002 natural gas spot price forecast. The analyst said he has lowered the 2001 projection of 12-region composite spot price to $3.80 from $4.10, compared to the current Street consensus of $4.00. UBS Warburg’s Henry Hub equivalent is $3.95.

Due to a confluence of events, including ample natural gas storage supplies and the nation entering a recession, Ronald Barone of UBS Warburg said it should “come as no surprise” that the company has decided to lower its 2001 and 2002 natural gas spot price forecast. The analyst said he has lowered the 2001 projection of 12-region composite spot price to $3.80 from $4.10, compared to the current Street consensus of $4.00. UBS Warburg’s Henry Hub equivalent is $3.95.