Despite chances of Hurricane Isabel entering the Gulf of Mexico continuing to fall, most points ranged from flat to as much as a dime or so higher Monday. The market was spotted with small losses here and there, but the only sizeable one was a dime-plus decline in San Juan Basin.

Dismissing moderate to cool weather almost everywhere except the still-hot desert Southwest as a significant price influence, sources instead pointed to the desire to fill storage accounts — while prices are presumably near their seasonal lows and before an early winter has a chance to rally them — as the primary reason for the cash market’s small gains. There was also the usual recovery of industrial demand that had diminished over the weekend, one observed.

However, storage buying wasn’t expected to keep quotes on the rise. A marketer and an eastern utility buyer reported production-area prices falling a few cents towards the end of trading. That and the screen drop of more than 8 cents offered a good clue that cash will be off Tuesday, the marketer said, “especially now that it’s almost certain Isabel won’t disrupt Gulf production.”

Although it had weakened a bit by Monday, Isabel remained a dangerous Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of close to 125 mph. It had made its anticipated turn toward the northwest and was expected to continue moving in that direction for the next 24 hours at around 8 mph. “Interests from the Carolinas northward to southern New England…along the coast and inland…should closely monitor the progress of Isabel,” the National Hurricane Center said. It added that the storm’s center was about 740 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC at 5 p.m. AST.

The Mid-Atlantic region is increasingly regarded as the most likely target of Isabel’s wrath. The Weather 2000 consulting firm was giving 90% odds Monday of a Mid-Atlantic landfall while simultaneously lowering its estimate of Gulf of Mexico entry to 3%. An East Coast strike by the storm would be bearish for the gas market as it would tend to lower demand both by bringing cooling rains and by causing electrical outages.

Another factor putting downward pressure on the market is trader anticipation of another large storage injection report Thursday from the Energy Information Administration. Analyst Kyle Cooper of Citigroup said Monday his final estimation is for a build between 86 and 96 Bcf.

But a Canadian producer was wondering whether an early winter might be on the way. The forecast for the Calgary area indicated snow could arrive as early as Monday night, she said, and while temperatures were “cold at night last week, now it’s cold during the day also.”

In addition, a marketer noted that while much of the Midwest continues to enjoy pleasant daytime temperatures early this week, it was getting rather chilly Monday across the northern halves of Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

“Extra gas was needed by two of our customers, and we are more than happy to oblige,” said a small Midwest trader. “One of them who bought 30 [MMcf/d] is running some gas-fired peakers [generating units]. I’m not sure why they needed the extra juice, because power demand has been moderate at best.”

One of Monday’s larger increases came at the Southern California border, which rose nearly a dime. SoCalGas kept an Overnominations Day notice that had been implemented Saturday in place through Sunday, but it was lifted Monday, a spokeswoman said.

Now that the hurricane appears to be pointing north of Florida, “we’re so quiet it’s boring,” a utility buyer in the state commented. The weather has been a little warmer and drier in Florida lately following frequent, almost daily rainfall since last spring. The peninsular section of the state was the only part of the South expected to experience highs above 90 degrees Monday.

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