Despite

Despite double-digit physical market increases and an earlyretest of the $2.80 level, natural gas futures tanked yesterday astraders weighed the impact of warm weather forecasts for the firstpart of October. After holding in the high $2.70s for most of themorning Monday, the November contract was hit with a round ofselling in the afternoon that pushed the price 16.8 cents lower toclose at $2.625.

After much talk earlier in the week about how weak the cashmarket looks, it must have surprised some traders Wednesday to seeall but a few scattered points range from flat to as much as anickel higher. Between a neutral screen and no change infundamental factors, sources had trouble explaining why Tuesday’sprice skid came to such a quick halt only a day later. A marketersaid he wanted to suggest the “bears” had gone into hibernation,but it was too long before winter begins for that.

Despite stronger cash prices and the surprise formation of a newtropical system in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, natural gasfutures prices tumbled lower yesterday as traders continued toliquidate long positions. The October contract was the hardest hit,slipping 8.9 cents to finish at $2.519. With many Nymex localsobserving the Jewish Holiday Yom Kippur, estimated volume was heldto an extremely light 53,174 contracts.

October futures managed to achieve a moderately strong recoveryFriday but apparently there was too much negative baggage left overfrom Thursday’s quarter-plus plunge to support cash. Physical gasprices continued their downhill slide, buffeted by the combinationof weak holiday weekend demand and mild weather virtuallyeverywhere. “Cash just didn’t stand a chance today,” a marketersaid.

Storms and screen-those were the two big “S” words thatdominated trader conversations Monday. Yet despite weekend lossesof South Texas production to Hurricane Bret, more tropicaldisturbances lining up in the Atlantic and a spectacular push bythe September Henry Hub futures contract to finish above $3, cashprices found themselves hard-pressed to do much more than standtheir ground. Except for some small upticks in the West, mostpoints saw little if any price movement.

Despite the sharp change in market direction the past twotrading days, with prices falling as much as 12 cents at somepoints Monday, there was no consensus on whether this is thebeginning of a lengthy slide or just a breather before anothersurge upward.

Despite flatness at a few mostly western points, the overallmarket pushed higher by around a nickel or so Tuesday. Electricgeneration stresses had faded in the Northeast, but early screensupport and rising air conditioning load in the South-and to amilder extent in the Midwest-combined for the cash gains.

After a quick check lower to fill in a small chart gap, thefutures market continued higher last Friday in an abbreviated, butextremely active trading session. The July contract finished up 7.6cents to $2.358, capping a two-day, 14.8-cent advance. Estimatedvolume was 66,263.

Despite the study by the Mid-America Interconnected Network(MAIN) last month indicating that power supplies in the Midwesthave greatly improved over last year, there are some who aren’tquite ready to write off the possibility of a recurrence of pricespikes for the region this summer.