Storms and screen-those were the two big “S” words thatdominated trader conversations Monday. Yet despite weekend lossesof South Texas production to Hurricane Bret, more tropicaldisturbances lining up in the Atlantic and a spectacular push bythe September Henry Hub futures contract to finish above $3, cashprices found themselves hard-pressed to do much more than standtheir ground. Except for some small upticks in the West, mostpoints saw little if any price movement.

The 1999 hurricane season seems to be trying to make up for losttime after two and a half months of no significant activity (Arlenewas a non-event). Not only did Bret become a hurricane over theweekend and cause the shut-in of what the Minerals ManagementService estimated as 50-75 platforms offshore South Texas, butTropical Storm Cindy was heading westward from the Cape VerdeIslands off West Africa and two tropical waves were being monitoredin the eastern Caribbean Sea.

South Texas pipelines reported varying experiences with stormshut-ins. Texas Eastern and Tennessee said no supplies at all weredisrupted on their systems. Operator Enron said Florida GasTransmission lost 170 MMcf/d and Houston Pipe Line 100 MMcf/d, andNGPL said it was down about 150 MMcf/d. Transco and Trunkline bothreported losing “some” gas without specifying any quantities. Allpipes involved said most of the outages occurred Sunday and thatproduction was being restored rapidly Monday. There were nointerruptions of scheduled deliveries, they said.

Prices apparently rode the “storm hype” escalator as high as itwould go Friday. Even a double-digit increase on the the futuresscreen failed to elicit any further gains by cash Monday. “Priceswere no higher today than they were [Friday], and they were even alittle softer in some cases,” a Gulf Coast marketer said. “I thinkthe fact that Bret ‘missed’ [a major production shut-in] had awhole lot to do with it. Still, without the hurricane hype, wewouldn’t be in the $2.90s on Florida Gas and Sonat.”

Noting rises of 3-4 cents at California points, an aggregatorsaid the state is finally starting to see increased cooling loadfor gas. Temperatures in the Sacramento Valley will be in the upper90s all week, he said.

One source expects prices to remain strong into the Septemberbidweek. “Storage is less than 75% full in some places, and peoplemust be getting scared because of that void with the winter comingup,” he said. Another trader concurred with the bullish outlook,noting the perception by some that there simply will not be enoughavailable supply to meet winter requirements.

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